'Informers key to foiling terror plans'

NEW DELHI: Experts say there's nothing like a time-tested formula for triggering terrorist acts. If there was such a thing, they say, then bicycles were unlikely to be used again and again to deliver bombs by terrorists because the modus operandi is well known and possibly under the scrutiny of government agencies.

The Saturday blast, where bombs were placed in garbage bins and on an autorickshaw, suggests that terrorists are devising new ways to deliver their deadly consignment in Indian cities.

The surest way to stop them is by developing high-quality human intelligence, says Maloy Krishna Dhar, former joint director, Intelligence Bureau. The spymaster maintains that one needs to create informers with access to terrorist cells and modules to put them under surveillance and get prior information on their plans.

"But on a scale of 100, our human intelligence cannot measure more than five. That's why we always draw a blank whenever it comes to operational intelligence," he says.

Every successful blast is looked at as an intelligence failure. But strategic analyst K Subrahmanyam points out that terrorists have certain advantages over the men trying to stop them. "As someone said, the terrorist has to succeed only once in 100 attempts whereas the intelligence people have to be correct all 100 times," he says.

After failing to kill then British PM Margaret Thatcher in October 1984, the IRA had said, "Today we were unlucky. But remember we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always."

It is expected of intelligence agencies to provide prior warning. "But the real question is," says Subrahmanyam, "whether such an expectation is realistic or not. After all, even American intelligence couldn't prevent 9/11."

In India, intelligence agencies often have a vague idea of an impending strike but they have been lacking in real-time intelligence, which is knowing when and where on a particular day a terrorist strike will take place. On the other hand, the Indian Mujahideen emails indicate the growing cockiness of terrorists.

Dhar believes that the state should invest in creating a more effective human intelligence network. But that obviously will take money and time. As Subrahmanyam points out, one cannot buy efficient intelligence overnight.

Dhar also highlights the need to have a comprehensive homeland security act as in the US. Doval believes that the key lies in selecting the right people for the right job, in motivating them and providing them with resources. "They will surely deliver," he says.

But above all, it needs to be understood that the root of the problem lies in combating the ideology that creates terrorists. That, however, is not the job of intelligence officials.