In Gujarat an average voter believes Narendra Modi is a leader who has brought order in the system

That Narendra Modi is a great vote catcher has been proved time and again in Gujarat. Under him, the BJP has seen three spectacular assembly wins with a clear 10% vote difference between BJP and Congress in each election. The state voted differently in Lok Sabha polls, narrowing the gap to below 5%. Despite the drubbing in state elections, the Congress performed honorably, winning 12 and 11 seats respectively in 2004 and 2009. The reason is simple: Most Gujaratis wanted to see Modi as CM but they didn't back BJP's Lok Sabha candidates with the same zeal.

This time, it is Modi for PM. To voters in Gujarat, already fired by his concept of Gujarati asmita (pride), nothing else matters. The famed Gujarat model of development is at the centre of political discourse, notwithstanding rath-er poor social indicators in health and education and a phenomenally high state debt. "Modi excels in the game of perception management; the truth may be ugly but Modi knows how to fudge facts and paint a rosy picture," says Gujarat Congress chief Arjun Modhwadia. Critics argue that entrepreneurial Gujarat has always had a higher growth rate among states. What Modi has done is to cleverly build his own brand around the state's success. Unlike his predecessor Keshubhai Patel, who faced years of drought, two cyclones and an earth-quake, Modi's tenure has seen exception-ally good rains, creating an impression that he's lucky for the state.

Under attack for his handling of the post-Godhra riots and subsequent fake encounters, Modi has long since changed colours from being Hindutva's poster boy to a man synonymous with robust growth and development. If the 'Vibrant Gujarat' meets showcased the state as a prime investment destination, 24-hour power supply and urban makeovers like the Sabarmati riverfront burnished its success story. Modi's popularity also stems from the fact that corruption and crime are under control. The average voter believes he is a macho leader who has brought some order in the system.

In fact, most BJP leaders believe the momentum in favour of Modi is so strong that individual candidates won't matter much. A senior leader says: "In 2009, the voter in Gujarat wasn't entirely convinced L K Advani (NDA's PM choice) was a better candidate than Manmohan Singh. And though Advaniji represented Gandhinagar, he was never seen as a Gujarati. With Modi seeking votes for himself this time, the choice will be very clear for the voter."

Not surprisingly, many Congress heavyweights (see box) look shaky. CLP leader Shankersinh Vaghela is also con-testing from Sabarkantha this time. The Congress is seeing a wave of desertions with several leaders switching to the BJP. Keshubhai's Gujarat Parivartan Party has also merged with it. The Aam Aadmi Party may provide some excitement in Gujarat but can hardly be expected to make any significant impact in what clearly looks like a one-sided affair.