IMD predicts 7% rain deficit, north India to bear the burden

NEW DELHI: IMD's revised forecast for this year's monsoon predicting an overall rain deficit of 7% for the season is particularly bad news for northwest India.

The region, containing India's agricultural 'granary' and large swathes of land critically low on groundwater, may be headed for a drought if the prediction of a 15% rain deficit comes true.

Meteorologists say weak monsoon years are especially hard for northwest India, one of the four meteorological regions of India comprising J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

That's because the region lies at the tail-end of the southwest monsoon system.

"During the monsoon, low pressure systems develop over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, and move inland, bringing rain. When the system is weak, these winds aren't strong enough to reach so far inland into north India," said a senior meteorologist.

D Sivananda Pai, lead monsoon forecaster at India Meteorological Department, said northwest India receives relatively less rainfall during years when El Nino affects the Indian monsoon.

In such years, the expert said, northeast India gains at the cost of the northwest. In the absence of strong low-pressure systems moving north-northwest, the winds move up towards the northeast.

This year's forecast too reflects this, with the region predicted to get normal rainfall at 99% of the average.

The 85% rain prediction for northwest India, however, would be a worry for the new government. This is a high-output region for agriculture and a drop in yields is likely to reflect in food prices.

Another cause for concern is the water situation in northwest India, considered one of one the world's most overexploited regions for groundwater.

With the water table already very low in many parts, many farmers would have little to fall back on if rains play truant.r, may be headed for a drought if the prediction of a 15% rain deficit comes true.

Meteorologists say weak monsoon years are especially hard for northwest India, one of the four meteorological regions of India comprising J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. That's because the region lies at the tail-end of the southwest monsoon system.

"During the monsoon, low pressure systems develop over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, and move inland, bringing rain. When the system is weak, these winds aren't strong enough to reach so far inland into north India," said a senior meteorologist.

D Sivananda Pai, lead monsoon forecaster at India Meteorological Department, said northwest India receives relatively less rainfall during years when El Nino affects the Indian monsoon.

In such years, the expert said, northeast India gains at the cost of the northwest. In the absence of strong low-pressure systems moving north-northwest, the winds move up towards the northeast. This year's forecast too reflects this, with the region predicted to get normal rainfall at 99% of the average.

The 85% rain prediction for northwest India, however, would be a worry for the new government. This is a high-output region for agriculture and a drop in yields is likely to reflect in food prices.

Another cause for concern is the water situation in northwest India, considered one of one the world's most overexploited regions for groundwater. With the water table already very low in many parts, many farmers would have little to fall back on if rains play truant.