Fission & frisson in the House

CPI general secretary AB Bardhan writing on the reasons for the “stand-off’ between the Left and the government over the Indo-US nuclear deal has described the accord as having “unleashed a political storm” in the country. His description, one of the strongest used by the Left to describe the crisis, foreshadows an imminent clash between political parties when the issue is debated in Parliament.

However, by the time the debate actually takes place — the date is not fixed yet though it is slated to take place before the monsoon session of Parliament ends on 14 September — its subject matter is set to go much beyond the deal itself.

The larger discussion around the deal is expected that will address the question whether it is in India’s national interest to line up along side the US. Along with this, the attendant supplementary about ‘Muslim sentiments’ is also bound to be raised by the SP and the JD(U) among others.

Though a disagreement over foreign policy might have provoked the current showdown between the government and the Left, political parties across the spectrum would attempt to affix layers of social and economic concerns to the deal that would be electorally more relevant.

The debate would see the Congress selling the deal by claiming, primarily, that it is in the interests of the ‘aam aadmi’. The party’s election managers also have also assessed privately that the middle class and the “TV viewing-newspaper reading classes” are bound to support the government and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh if it they stand up for ‘national interest’ against the Left’s ‘obstructionist’ policies. The party has already begun to prepare its political line on this front.

Union minister and Congress leader Kapil Sibal, who will lead on behalf of the government in the Lok Sabha during the debate, has explained to a newspaper that Congress did not sign the NPT or the CTBT; that it liberated Bangladesh despite the indirect presence of the US in the conflict; that the party under Indira Gandhi exploded India’s first nuclear device in 1974; and remained non-aligned during the Cold War despite the close ties with the USSR.

Mr Sibal, through his arguments, thus looks prepared to take on the BJP for its “anti-national” and the Left’s “pro-America” attack on the government. UPA constituents such as RJD and DMK are expected to stick with the benefits of more electricity generation line as well. Other UPA constituents such as the NCP and the LJP have also indicated support for the government over the deal.

The BJP, for its part, has opposed the deal contending that the US is working to “cap, roll back and eliminate India’s strategic nuclear programme” in the words of senior BJP leader and former Union minister Yashwant Sinha. The party is expected to argue in favour of “re-negotiating” the deal rather than abandoning in its bid to step back from the current ‘anti-US’ stand that it is appearing to espouse. Mr Sinha has been saying that despite the 123 agreement not mentioning the Hyde Act, US domestic laws will apply to India.

The UNPA is also opposed to the deal. It is from sections of this group that deal’s ‘communal’ dimensions are likely to be explored. SP is likely to focus on the US’s supposed ‘anti-Islam’ stand to argue against the deal. NDA constituent Shiv Sena is set to back the deal and Trinamool Congress is likely to oppose the deal but also criticize the Left.

The Left parties have made their stand amply clear by asking the government to choose between their support or the nuclear deal.