Faction-riddled Samajwadi Party now looks for winning formula

For the first time since 2002, a resurgent BJP is challenging the duopoly of Samajwadi Party and BSP in the coming UP polls. Caste equations still matter but feuding in SP's Yadav clan, Mayawati's bold pitch for Muslim votes, BJP's play on demonetisation and Congress's dalliance with SP have created an unpredictable scenario. TOI looks at the game plans of the major players:

The groundswell within Samajwadi Party for an alliance with a much-reduced Congress outlines the challenge before the ruling party .

The extended public feud in the Yadav clan strengthened the impression that factional sabotage in the polls is on the cards, despite CM Akhilesh Yadav and party elders, led by uncle Shivpal, reaching an expedient truce.


A consequent question mark on SP's winnability is bound to unsettle key voting groups like Muslims, who worry that divisions may help BJP , prompting a shift towards BSP, the other “secular“ challenger. A weakened SP may also stoke a rethink among OBC groups not averse to BJP, while some others may look to BSP . Either way, the loss is SP's.

Parliament's corridors are abuzz with Samajwadi leaders pitching for an alliance with Congress, arguing the lead “secular“ player on the national scene will reassure minorities who, apart from his fellow Yadavs, are SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav's principal support base -thereby bolstering SP's credibility in the coming elections.

SP leaders see a strongly placed Samajwadi camp being a magnet for non-Yadav backward communities. The lesson is well learnt given PM Narendra Modi's success with this section along with a slice of scheduled castes in 2014.

SP is also banking on Akhilesh's image. Surprisingly enough, even BJP and Congress, as also BSP leaders, admit the young CM is a poll asset as even after five years in office, Akhilesh is seen by ordinary folk and the poor as a “well-meaning boy“. The party also believes prolonged “demonetisation woes“ will turn voters away from BJP .

SP has never won back to-back, but the re-emer gence of BJP in what has been a bipolar state for some time, coupled with rival BSP's zero score in Lok Sabha polls, has undercut Mayawati's outfit as the default alternative.

Now, it is to be seen if the Mulayam-Akhilesh duo manages to contain Shivpal and other grandees.