ET poll for 2014 elections: Muslims hope for a JD(U)-Congress alliance in Bihar

Muslims in Bihar appear to be rooting for a JD(U)-Congress alliance in the state ahead of the general elections. While 69 per cent of the Muslim respondents in the survey endorsed Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s decision to end his party’s alliance with the BJP, 62 per cent felt that the JD(U) leader would need the support of the Congress to consolidate Muslim votes in his party’s favour. The finding is significant since it signals the unravelling of Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad’s Muslim-Yadav alliance — a combo that ensured 27 per cent votes for the RJD.

Muslims seem to be pitching aggressively for Nitish Kumar even as the survey was conducted before Prasad was jailed, a development that plunged his party into a leadership crisis. The survey clearly suggests that a pact with the JD(U) is the only viable political option for the Congress in Bihar. Even as the party has no significant support among any dominant caste grouping in the state, it can hope to earn electoral dividends from the support of Muslims through an alliance with a dominant player. And in the new situation, this player can only be Nitish Kumar.

The 2010 assembly elections in Bihar had dealt a knockout punch to the Congress’ efforts to revive the party in the state and exposed the limitations of Rahul Gandhi’s vote-catching abilities. The Congress, which contested all 243 seats, managed to win just four seats even as Gandhi had campaigned extensively in the elections.

Analysts say a JD(U)-Congress pact can help consolidate Muslim votes because the chief minister has been working to ensure the support of Pasmandas — lower caste Muslims — who have found little space in the scheme of things of the RJD or the Congress. There has been disquiet among Pasmandas, who account for 80 per cent of the Muslim population in the state, over the tendency in the Congress and the RJD to share the spoils of power with only the upper sections of the Muslim community.