ET poll for 2014 election: The Methodology

Nielsen conducted an opinion poll for ET in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar between September 4 and 26 to understand voter sentiment ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Individuals eligible to cast their votes were interviewed at their homes and the short questionnaire administered to them included a question on their voting intention if elections were to be held the next day.

A fairly rigorous sampling methodology was followed to ensure that the interviews conducted adequately represent the voter population of the two states. This involved covering 50% of the parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in each state and within each PC half the assembly constituency (AC) segments were covered. In each AC segment four areas were covered, with equal number of interviews conducted in each area.

Thus the survey covered a total of 40 PCs (120ACs) in UP and 20PCs (60ACs) in Bihar. Two kinds of people – voters and opinion leaders – were interviewed. A total of 120 voters and 20 opinion leaders were interviewed per PC.

The opinion leaders interviewed in rural areas included lawyers, professors, teachers, doctors, sarpanch and social workers while in urban areas this group included social workers, small to medium industrialists, businessmen and leaders of small unions.

The voters interviewed included both males and females aged 17 and above, and quotas were maintained by gender, age and caste at the PC level. Hence, the survey achieved a total sample size of 8,494 respondents, with 4,896 voters and 795 opinion leaders in Uttar Pradesh, and 2,401 voters and 402 opinion leaders in Bihar.

At the analysis stage, the data was weighted to make it representative of the state on parameters such as gender, age and urban/rural segments.