ET Poll for 2014 election: SP out of favour after Muzaffarnagar riots, Narendra Modi's popularity rises

The communal clashes in Muzaffarnagar have unsettled social equations in western Uttar Pradesh and catapulted the BJP into a dominant position. Samajwadi Party’s popularity has nosedived primarily because it has lost the trust of Muslim voters who hold considerable clout in the region.

As many as 57 per cent respondents in the survey said the BJP would gain the most from the recent riots in western Uttar Pradesh. Barring a brief period following the demolition of the Babri Masjid at Ayodhya, when a section of the Jats backed the BJP, the community has been voting along with Muslims. But with the Jat-Muslim conflict in the area severing the social alliance, the BJP’s rivals are likely to find it difficult to consolidate the Hindu votes in their favour.

The emerging situation can be troubling for not just the SP but also the Congress-RLD alliance. While there is an erosion of Muslim support for the SP, the Jats are no longer willing to consolidate their votes for helping the Congress and the RLD.

According to the survey, Narendra Modi registered a sharp rise in popularity after he was named the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate on September 13. The voting intent for the BJP also went up as a result. The respondents also expect Narendra Modi to play a key role in Uttar Pradesh, where his close aide Amit Shah has been made in-charge of the BJP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. Modi is expected to contest the elections from Varanasi in the state.