Election results 2014: Project Rahul now in limbo

Congress’s decimation in this election can put a question mark on Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, while pegging back his policy initiatives, political philosophy and organizational reforms that have been rankling a section of the party for being “non-political”.

For starters, Congress may be forced to postpone the transition of power that was on the cards since Rahul’s appointment as party No.2 last January. In fact, Sonia Gandhi may have to continue in leadership for longer than she had planned.

Given that the slide has coincided with Rahul’s entry to the centrestage, the obvious target of partymen’s anger would his advisors and his policies. The big worry is that murmurs may be followed by loud talk and even desertion from the party by state leaders expressing low confidence in the Congress scion. Party leaders say it could be a trying time for Congress.

Experience suggests that there may not be direct attacks on the scion, at least not at the outset. Congressmen have traditionally used euphemisms like “style of functioning” and preferred to target advisers instead of the leader. Slogans demanding that Priyanka join politics — heard during the campaign — will now be treated as a vote of no-confidence in Rahul.

The attack would be on the issues the party chose to run on. In contrast to Rahul’s pitch for inclusive politics but without convincing proposals to spur growth, Modi came in headlong with his promise of growth and job generation, exposing how ruling party strategists had failed to read the mood.

Rahul’s bid to play the “outsider” also failed, with Modi successfully yoking the “shehzada” to UPA’s tattered legacy from which he was trying to distance. BJP’s relentless focus on the land deals of Robert Vadra hurt too, making the family’s claim of having kept away from dodgy dealings of the government look suspect. By the time the campaign ended, ‘Ma bete ki sarkar’ had acquired a lethal edge.

The setback may dampen the enthusiasm for radical restructuring of the organization and can be a hurdle in Rahul’s attempts to rebuild the party in areas where it has got weakened. The 16th Lok Sabha may see Congress revert to “secular” camaraderie with regional parties with whom it broke ranks after the 2009 sweep. The defeat will severely test Rahul’s ability to push ideas like “primaries” to select election candidates through internal voting. While the initiative has its critics, a weakened leadership may bring out the opposition in the open.

Team Rahul may also have to tread carefully on the much-touted “democratization” of frontal outfits NSUI and Youth Congress. There is pent up resentment that internal elections to choose youth leaders has institutionalized corruption with the kin of powerful partymen using money power to secure control of the outfits. Far from re-energizing the youth outfits, which are seen as the party’s “sword arms” , the experiment seems to have dimmed their agitational spirit.