Divided they stand: Three sticking points for the INDIA bloc

The more INDIA bloc of opposition parties, which have come together to put up a united fight against the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP, try to forge a consensus the more differences crop up.

After the BJP's recent victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the bargaining power of the Congress, the largest party in the India bloc, seems to have diminished greatly. Mamata Banerjee of the TMC has reportedly offered only two seats in West Bengal to the Congress while the AAP had declared it will fight on all 13 seats in Punjab. Mamata also reportedly proposed the name of Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi as the INDIA bloc's candidate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi, apparently without the Congress agreeing to it. Mamata and Kejriwal created a flutter by naming Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge as the prime-ministerial candidate of the bloc. Lalu Yadav of the RJD and Bihar Chief Minister reportedly walked out of the INDIA bloc meeting in protest against projecting Khage as the PM candidate.

The fissures within the alliance seem to widen even as they try to progress to seat-sharing negotiations. The INDIA block faces basically three problems: seat sharing, the PM face and common poll plank.


Seat sharing
In a meeting on Tuesday, the INDIA bloc decided that seat-sharing for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls would be finalised as soon as possible with the exercise beginning at the state level. The TMC proposed at the meeting that the Congress can fight 300 seats and let Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav be captain in Uttar Pradesh, AAP's Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi and Punjab, and the TMC in West Bengal, PTI has reported citing sources.

West Bengal, Kerala, Punjab and Delhi continue to remain sticking points among the alliance partners, as none of the stakeholders is ready to give in. TMC, CPM and AAP refuse to adjust to the Congress demands for seats. Reportedly, Mamata has offered only two seats to the Congress out of the total 42 in West Bengal.

While the TMC insisted during the fourth meeting of the INDIA parties here on Tuesday that the seat-sharing should be finalised by December 31, the Congress asserted it could be sealed by the second week of January after all issues are ironed out smoothly.

In the past couple of months, the allies have publicly berated Congress for focusing all its energies in the just-concluded assembly elections to five states, ignoring their entreaties that apportioning seats among allies should be completed at the earliest to facilitate early candidate selection and campaign strategy to take on the BJP in 2024.

The Congress, being the biggest party, would like to have an edge in seat sharing over other alliance parties but its defeat in the recent assembly polls in three key states seems to have eroded its bargaining power. It has now formed a committee for seat-sharing in states with the INDIA partners. Talks with SP and DMK for seat sharing in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are now expected to gather speed. The SP had hit out at the Congress for not sharing seats with it in Madhya Pradesh polls, and it is unlikely that the SP is going to give any major advantage to the Congress in seat-sharing negotiations for Uttar Pradesh.

The face of the alliance
Who will be the PM candidate of the INDIA bloc? This has become a controiversial issue. While the Congress would like to project Rahul Gandhi as the chief opponent of Modi since it has invested so much in projecting Rahul as the sole national-level opponent of Modi, there is no agreement on him in the alliance apparently due to most alliance leaders being senior to Rahul.

Nitish Kumar is the main apsirant for the PM face of the alliance but again there is no consensus on him either. Mamata and Arvind Kejriwal have proposed the name of Congress Chief Mallikarjun Kharge who has politely refused. While this proposal might have embarrased the Congress which sees in Rahul its top leader, many believe the proposal has upset Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Reportedly, Lalu Yadav of the RJD and Nitish even left the recent alliance meeting in a huff on this issue. Today, a leader of Nitish's party has opposed Kharge and endorsed Nitish as the PM face of the alliance. Nitish and Mamata have time and again been projected as the PM face of the alliance by their respective party leaders. Nitish is particulerly seen to be nursing the ambition of leading INDIA bloc in polls against Modi's NDA.

The PM face has become a contentious issue for the alliance. Given the sharp differences among alliance partners, a consensus on this issue does not seem possible at the moment. If the alliance goes to polls without having a PM face, it will be a major handicap due to Modi's strong projection of himself as an able leader who is a cut above the rest for leading the country.

Common issues
The alliance needs definite common issues to challenge incumbent Modi. It has found one in the demand for a caste census on which most partners seem to agree. But the recent polls in the states have shown that the issue did not amount to much. Reverting to the Old Pension Scheme is another common issue which too failed to have any deep traction in the assembly elections.

While the BJP will go to polls with issues of economic development, social welfare schemes, Ayodhya, Article 370, etc., the opposition alliance must find specific common issues to mount a credible challenge to the BJP-led NDA. The recent polls have also shown up the freebie politics of the opposition parties, especially the Congress which had won in Karnataka ostensibly for its "guarantees", to be ineffective in the face of a bigger counter by the BJP.

There is no cohesion among the alliance partners on the issue of alleged proximity of Adani to Modi which has been turned into a huge campaign by Rahul. While Sharad Pawar has openly endorsed Adani and even asked Rahul to refrain from criticising him, the West Bengal and Bihar governments are accepting investments from Adani. Even the Congress-ruled states had accepted investment from Adani. In Kerala, the CPM and the Congress even vied to take credit for a port Adani has built in the state.

Without credible common issues to anchor their opposition to the BJP and Modi, the alliance will find it difficult to convince voters, especially when the BJP and Modi are known for eloquently communicate their issues to voters.

(With inputs from TOI)