Delhi voters think PM Narendra Modi good enough for state too

NEW DELHI: The TNS India opinion poll findings explain why the Aam Aadmi Party used PM Modi’s picture on its main campaign banner on the party website. Those who plan to vote for BJP when the state goes to the polls in the next few months will be doing so as a mark of support for Modi. He is the factor that puts BJP ahead of AAP and Congress in Delhi. As per the poll, BJP's performance is "primarily pushed by the image of Modi" and one of the most important reasons that drives the respondents to the polling booth is "the top leader of the party".

In November, the AAP website had a banner, which was soon removed, that said: "Delhi speaks: Modi for PM and Arvind for CM.” AAP evidently wanted to tell the voters of Delhi that it had nothing but praise for Modi, and that the roles of the prime minister and the chief minister are different.

But the voters may still troop in to vote for the top leader of BJP, instead of Kejriwal, despite the regard they seem to have for the latter. Although BJP does not have a single leader of any consequence in Delhi, as per the survey, Delhi voters seem to be of the view that the PM is good enough for the state as well.

The largely Hindu upper-caste, middle-class vote base hasn't wavered from the support it gave him in the general election. That should help BJP retain its vote share of about 46% and aim at a total 43-47 seats, which will give it a majority in the assembly. The party is expected to retain 20-25 of the 31 seats it won in December last year, gain 13-23 new seats and may lose three seats from its earlier tally.

Such a performance would be all due to Modi's popularity. Regular voters — excluding those exercising their franchise for the first time — among the respondents have put a high premium on the "top leader of the party" than even any chief ministerial candidate, thereby clearly underlining the reason why the voters are leaning towards BJP. This seems to be a contest in which the possible candidates and local factors have been overshadowed by the man who will be BJP's prime campaigner.

Given that the state is smaller in area compared with others, it's also easy for Modi to tour extensively. Any dramatic change to the outcome could come about only in the event of a major political miscalculation or a news development that somehow changes the narrative. And while in that sense Delhi poses a test of his popularity, so far Modi and his team have displayed the political acumen needed to leverage his popularity to the maximum.