Delhi polls: Opinion poll puts BJP in lead, but not quite

The Delhi assembly elections are likely to throw up a hung assembly with no party getting a majority, according to an opinion poll done for a TV channel. The poll predicted that the BJP would emerge the single largest party with 32 seats in the 70-member assembly , the Congress would win 25 seats and the Aam Aadmi Party 10, leaving three seats with independents and others.

Interestingly, however, the poll also cautioned that around 15-20 seats are likely to be won and lost with margins of 2% or less. Given this picture, the pollsters also presented three alternate scenarios depending on whether the mood in these seats turns pro-BJP , pro-Congress or pro-AAP .

Two of the three scenarios – the ones based on the mood being pro-Congress and pro-AAP – still yield hung assemblies. In fact, in the pro-AAP scenario, it could end up with a nearly equal three-way split. However , the pro-BJP scenario would see the BJP winning 40 seats, the poll projected.

If the baseline prediction made by the poll, done for ABP News by AC Nielsen, turns out right, Delhi could well find itself in a situation in which no government can be formed, since AAP has repeatedly asserted that it would not support either BJP or Congress.

The latest Nielsen-ABP poll suggests that the momentum that AAP seemed to be gaining earlier may have not only petered out but be waning . Similar polls done in August and October had shown AAP winning 8 seats and 18 seats respectively, raising the prospect of the new entrant in Delhi’s electoral arena building up steam as the polls approached. It now appears that with candidates having been announced, that is no longer the case.

If indeed these polls are a reasonably accurate reflection of the popular mood, that throws up the question of what changes could occur between the time the latest poll was conducted, which is mid-November , and the date of polling on December 4.

As in a long-distance race in athletics, the runner with the best ‘kick’ at the finish, it appears may be the one on the victory podium, if at all there is to be anyone on it.