Delhi polls: Few thousand votes may make a capital difference

AAP continues to enjoy the support of unauthorized colonies and slums. But the BJP is banking on the middle class vote bank.

By TNN | Updated: Feb 07, 2015, 10.18 AM IST

Delhi polls: Few thousand votes may make a capital difference

NEW DELHI: For the huge stakes in Delhi polls, the issue of who wins the battle may be settled by less than a few thousand votes, if the last elections are any indication. In 2013, BJP and AAP missed the majority mark in Delhi assembly narrowly. Of the 70 seats, 16 were decided by margins ranging from 355 votes in Delhi Cantonment to 2,891 in Matia Mahal.

Of these, AAP won seven while BJP grabbed six, Congress two and JD(U) one. While all of these constituencies may not go down to the wire this time, field reports indicate there are others who seem poised to see similarly close fights. This indicates that with the state headed for a photo finish, it is just a few thousand votes which may separate the winner from the loser. It also indicates that more than the meta narratives, it is the basic of who gets the voters out to the polling booth that may well hold the key.

Last time, there were five constituencies where the victory margin was less than 1,000 votes. This time, too, there is a tough fight on all five seats — Sangam Vihar, Vikaspuri, Delhi Cantonment, Sadar Bazaar and RK Puram.

One of the biggest losses for BJP in the last elections was Delhi Cantonment, a constituency it has never lost since 1993. BJP candidate Karan Singh Tanwar lost to AAP's Commando Surender by 355 votes. This time, the constituency poses a tougher fight. In the recent Delhi Cantonment Board elections, BJP managed to retain its five seats, though it lost one seat to Congress. Despite having its own MLA, AAP won just one seat. For AAP, the fight is about proving itself as a credible option. But with middle class voters drifting towards BJP, Tanwar is optimistic of winning, as the constituency largely has defence and government officials.

In Sangam Vihar constituency, a hub of unauthorized colonies, civic issues are of prime importance. It is a close contest between AAP's Dinesh Mohaniya and former MLA and BJP candidate SCL Gupta. Locals say Mohaniya's popularity in the area has declined over the last one year. But he is banking on AAP's popularity among the lower income groups to get a second term. Gupta, who has been actively working in the area, is banking of the Modi-led central government's decision to regularize all unauthorized colonies which came up till June 2014 to stage a comeback. The Congress, which had given ticket to Sajjan Kumar's son Jag Pravesh last year, has fielded an ex-councillor this time.

In Sadar Bazaar, it is going to be an interesting contest, as Congress has fielded former MP Ajay Maken, who is also in-charge of the party's election campaign, against AAP's Som Dutt (former MLA) and BJP's Praveen Jain. It has been a Congress stronghold which it lost to AAP in the last elections. With Maken, Congress is hopeful of winning it back.

In Vikaspuri, however, Congress hopes are not so high. AAP continues to enjoy the support of unauthorized colonies and slums. But the BJP is banking on the middle class vote bank, which played a crucial role in AAP's victory in the 2013 elections in the constituency. AAP had won the seat by 405 votes. A slight shift in middle class votes can change the situation here.

With opinion polls indicating a direct contest between BJP and AAP in Delhi, BJP members are confident of winning RK Puram, a colony dominated by the middle classes, government employees and upscale neighbourhoods, for the second time. Last time, BJP's Anil Sharma had defeated AAP's Shazia Ilmi, who has recently joined BJP, by 326 votes. This time, Ilmi has campaigned for the party in the constituency. While BJP has repeated its candidate, Congress and AAP have fielded new faces, Leeladhar Bhatt and Pramila Tokas, respectively.

There are five constituencies where the victory margin was between 1,000 and 2,000 votes. Of the five constituencies, AAP and Congress won two each and BJP one. AAP won BJP and Congress strongholds of Karol Bagh and Jangpura respectively by 1,750-odd votes each. But this time, it faces a tough challenge to retain these two constituencies as BJP has fielded North Delhi mayor Yogender Chandolia from Karol Bagh and Delhi Speaker and former AAP member M S Dhir from Jangpura.

In the past two decades, the BJP has never won in Mustafabad, a Muslim-dominated constituency, and Sultanpur Majra, a reserved seat. Both these constituencies have been with Congress which managed to retain them, though by a small margin, during its worst performance in Delhi assembly elections last year. AAP is hoping to cash in on Congress's loss during the Lok Sabha election where it stood third on a majority of assembly seats. Of the 12 reserved seats, BJP had won just two seats, Gokalpur and Bawana, last time. The contest has become tough here as a former BJP MLA, Fateh Singh, is contesting on AAP's ticket and BSP too has fielded a strong candidate. It is one of the few constituencies in Delhi which has been represented by a new MLA in each election. It is going to be a tough fight for ex-MLA Ranjeet Kashyap.

Trinagar, Bijwasan, Kalkaji and Janakpuri are constituencies were BJP won by less than 3,000-odd votes. The party is banking on the middle class vote bank to ensure a comfortable majority in three constituencies, except Trinagar, as it has high percentage of slum vote. It also hopes to win its stronghold, Tilak Nagar, which it lost to AAP last time. In Trinagar, AAP is banking on the support of slums and unauthroized colonies. But in Matia Mahal, Shoiab Iqbal, who has always contested on tickets from different political parties, faces a tough challenge from AAP.

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