Delhi polls: BJP dumps Modi electioneering model & projects Kiran Bedi; close contest likely with AAP

Is Bedi an effective answer to BJP’s leadership crisis in capital? Not completely. All the radio jingles and hoardings are still only about Modi.

By Rajesh Ramachandran, ET Bureau | Jan 25, 2015, 07.13 AM IST

Delhi polls: BJP dumps Modi electioneering model & projects Kiran Bedi; close contest likely with AAP

Arvind Kejriwal, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) founder, has convincingly won the first battle of nerves in the run-up to the Delhi assembly polls by pushing the BJP leadership to anoint Kiran Bedi as its chief ministerial candidate. A dynamic response to an opponent is often a sign of strength for a political outfit. But here, the BJP has been forced to dump its Modi model of electioneering, prompting AAP to claim an initial lead.

The Modi poll position was all about fielding just the prime minister without announcing a CM candidate. The assembly election campaigns in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir were all and only about Modi, without any imposing state-level leaders. Elections were fought on Modi’s promise and personality and though BJP did not win a simple majority in Maharashtra or Jharkhand, the model was successful in propping up governments there. Soon, there could be a BJP-PDP power-sharing arrangement in J&K as well.

Now, BJP’s change of strategy in Delhi has led the AAP leadership to coin a catchy phrase: “Jeetega toh Modi; haarega toh Bedi [the win will be Modi’s and the loss Bedi’s]. We have stopped the Modi juggernaut in Delhi and the BJP now has exposed its nervousness by fielding Kiran Bedi,” said a top AAP strategist.

But the BJP leadership sees it in a completely different light. AAP has a strong base among the lower middles classes and the poor, who are largely the Dalits, the minorities and the weaker sections living in the poorer quarters of the city. Over and above this firm vote base, if AAP wins a sizeable chunk of the middle- and upper-middle-class votes, BJP will be in trouble.

Will Bedi do the Magic?

“We have avoided this situation by projecting Bedi as a CM candidate to snatch the middle-class votes away from Kejriwal. All those middle- and upper-middle-class voters who would have otherwise voted for Kejriwal would now prefer Bedi because they had all voted for BJP in the Parliamentary polls. Their perceived preference for AAP was only because of Kejriwal’s pre-eminent position as a CM candidate. There was no credible opponent for Kejriwal till Bedi was fielded. Now we have filled that vacuum,” said a BJP functionary.

Is Bedi an effective answer to BJP’s leadership crisis in the capital? Not completely. All the radio jingles and wayside hoardings are still only about Modi. Then, Bedi is expected to perform better than former Delhi unit heads Harsh Vardhan, Vijay Goel, Mange Ram Garg and Vijender Gupta, and also the incumbent, Satish Upadhyay.

Some BJP insiders feel the Delhi unit’s complete lack of confidence was transmitted to the top leaders, compelling them to bring in someone who legitimately shares Kejriwal’s clean image and activist legacy. Also, with no Delhi leader capable of sabotage from within, there is really nothing going against Bedi.

Delhi’s fight, now, is over its uppercaste, middle-class votes. Bedi, an upper-caste Punjabi, is also an icon of transparency and efficiency for the middle classes. Apart from luring the sizeable Punjabi-speaking community, particularly 7% Khatris, Bedi surely can give Kejriwal a run for his money among the educated middle classes.

Also, as a BJP insider points out, “Bedi can neutralise a lot of negativity against BJP among the traditional non-BJP or anti-BJP voters. As a CM candidate, she doesn’t conjure up the vision of a lathi-wielding RSS leader among the minorities.”

More than What Meets the Eye

These BJP leaders believe that most of the middle-class supporters at Kejriwal’s rallies are part of the party’s travelling circus — its committed volunteers. They feel that as the country’s first woman IPS officer, Bedi can easily sway idealistic young voters away from AAP. But the situation is not so simple. A big 6% chunk of the middle classes is the Bania or Vaishya community, which has not yet made up its mind. “The business community is confused. It traditionally votes for BJP.

But Kejriwal is an Agarwal Bania and is a potential CM. An ideal neighbourhood Bania boy from IIT, who got into the civil service, he means a lot to the community,” said a bureaucrat from the community, who is also a New Delhi voter. In fact, the babus of the New Delhi constituency seem to be rooting for Kejriwal as their fascination for Modi has worn off with the new regime insisting on early morning attendance.

Theoretically, a convergence of large sections — 17% Dalits, 12% Muslims and the poorer OBCs — could make Kejriwal’s win easy. But the BJP has been careful in building up on its existing upper-caste, middle-class voters. In the last parliamentary polls, it was ahead of AAP by about 13% votes.

Now, if it holds on to the massive lead it had in the 12 rural constituencies in 2013, it can form the next government. But AAP insists that it is winning over the rural elite, putting up the right kind of candidates. All that can be predicted now is a close contest in every constituency.

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Delhi polls 2015: Top 10 contests to watch out for

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Text: Nidhi Sharma, ET Bureau

Now that the electoral battle for Delhi is well and truly on, with BJP declaring Kiran Bedi as its chief ministerial candidate and the top three parties announcing names of most of their candidates, here is a look at the 10 biggest contests in the upcoming assembly polls...