Delhi polls 2015: Dismal show may bring focus back on Congress leadership crisis

NEW DELHI: Congress is staring at a meltdown in Delhi that would only deepen the sense of crisis haunting the party since its decimation in the Lok Sabha elections followed by humiliation in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. None of the exit polls on Saturday gave it more than five seats in a 70-seat Delhi assembly, while three suggested that it may win none.

This echoed the worst Congress fears that its equity has plummeted in public perception to the extent that the party has become a handicap even for winning candidates. Such a realization could well result in a huge churn, leading to defections and even raising the possibility of splits.

On Saturday evening the grim joke in Congress circles was that an AAP victory in Delhi could snatch away even the only win expected after the LS defeat—Punjab in 2017. In-house estimates expect the party to win on the Akali turf, based on the assumption that Congress is the only opposition in that state. But AAP's good show in Punjab in the LS poll might now pitchfork it the role of the lead opposition to the SAD-BJP government.

Hidden in the Delhi poll forecast is the threat of AAP positioning itself as "secular plus" alternative to Congress - inclusive and anti-graft in the aspirational mould. It could lead the newbie to other north Indian states that resemble the Delhi landscape - urbanized towns with angry voters and an entrenched social media as in Punjab.

Somewhere, the string of recent Congress defeats has created the eerie feeling in the party of being helpless in the ICU - a situation where it is acted upon rather than acting on its own. The party could win only 42 seats in the Maharashtra house of 288, six out of 81 in Jharkhand, 15 out of 90 in Haryana and 12 in J&K.

If the Congress cookie crumbles in Delhi, murmurs and occasional laments about a leadership crisis in the party could become louder. For many, the leadership issue curbs the imagination required in such emergency situations. Completely dependent on the Gandhi family that acts as glue as well as the mascot, there is currently a collective paralysis as Sonia Gandhi recedes from the high stage in favour of son Rahul Gandhi.

If Congress finds a challenger in AAP for the opposition space, the future does not hold much hope of its revival. While the grand old party has seen extended periods out of power, it has invariably bounced back. This time there is little evidence of it retuning itself to changing realities and preparing for a comeback. It has a strong national rival in Narendra Modi-led BJP and a growing number of regional parties to contend with. Politics seems to have changed faster than Congress can keep pace with.

Fighting corruption, rapid decision-making and tapping into the aspirations of the youth are planks that remain alien to Congress despite being on the cusp of welcoming a Gandhi leader from the next generation. If you rewind to how PM Modi milked the national mood against UPA by promising exactly this, while AAP threatens to upstage BJP on the same agenda, the Congress is just missing from the new political frame.

A Delhi disaster would only exacerbate the sinking feeling. Party leaders said it could add fuel to the ongoing "Old Guard vs GenNext" face-off besides the sarcasm from in-house wise-heads about Rahul Gandhi. But that doesn't answer where Congress will go from here.