Delhi polls 2015: AAP likely to walk away with 36-40 seats while BJP could win 28-32, finds survey

The ET-TNS survey showed that Kejriwal continued to be the most popular CM choice for Delhiites with 54% of voters preferring him.

By ET Bureau | Feb 03, 2015, 06.56 AM IST

Delhi polls 2015: AAP likely to walk away with 36-40 seats while BJP could win 28-32, finds survey

NEW DELHI: Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appear to have reversed the pro-BJP mood in Delhi and could win a simple majority if assembly elections were to be held now, shows the latest opinion poll carried out by polling firm TNS for ET.

AAP will get 36-40 seats in the 70-member assembly with a vote share of 49% while BJP will win 28-32 seats, says the survey conducted in the last week of January. Delhi goes to polls on February 7, and results of the keenly watched contest will be declared three days later.

The findings of the poll of 3,260 respondents in 16 assembly constituencies are in sharp contrast to an earlier ET-TNS poll conducted in November-December last year that had shown BJP comfortably romping home with 43-47 seats. AAP was forecast to win 22-25 seats then, while Congress was expected to eke out anywhere between zero and three seats. Congress is now forecast to win 2-4 seats.

The period between the two opinion polls saw the Ghar Wapsi issue snowball into a major political controversy, the Uber taxi rape case and more recently the visit of US President Barack Obama.

The intervening period also saw Kiran Bedi being named as BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, apparently to counter AAP leader Kejriwal’s anti-corruption credentials and give voters a fresh face that could also deflect criticism that the party did not have a credible CM candidate in the Capital.

But that decision appears to have backfired on BJP, with Kejriwal, who was the most preferred to be the chief minister among voters in various polls, widening his lead. The latest ET-TNS survey showed that Kejriwal continued to be the most popular chief ministerial choice for Delhiites with 54% of voters preferring him, a 16 percentage point lead over his one-time comrade and a 12 percentage point increase from the previous poll. Bedi and Kejriwal were colleagues in the Anna Hazare-led India Against Corruption campaign that convulsed Delhi in 2012.

Political analysts and opinion polls have started to speak of the electoral contest, viewed not very long ago as a slam dunk victory for BJP that won in all of Delhi’s assembly segments during the May 2014 general elections, reversing in recent days.

A separate opinion poll by ABP News and Nielsen on Monday also forecast AAP as the clear winner with 35 seats and 37% of the vote share while BJP was seen winning 29 seats with 33% vote share.

Santosh Desai, a social commentator, says the momentum has shifted towards AAP in the past few days but it still is a close contest. “Kiran Bedi in her interactions comes across as inflexible, as someone who is reading out from a fixed script or trying hard to push her way. Her nomination as the party’s CM candidate may have crystalised the assumption that BJP’s plans for Delhi are shaky,” he said

That said, BJP still has a huge strength. There is no shift in Modi’s popularity. It could be early to judge. Also, BJP is throwing everything into the fight, so anything can happen,” he added.

BJP leaders say they are confident of winning the election, and party chief Amit Shah told ET last week that his efforts were aimed at getting a two-thirds majority and not just a simple majority.

However, the recent opinion poll findings are unlikely to please BJP, which was on a roll after the Lok Sabha election victory that was quickly followed by a string of strong performances in the elections to the assemblies of Maharashtra, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand. Analysts say a defeat for BJP in Delhi, the epicentre of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, could embolden its opponents to intensify their Opposition, portending logjams and stormy Parliament sessions.

The TNS poll revealed a tough contest between BJP and AAP in as many as 12 seats, with some seats traditionally considered as BJP’s pocket boroughs — Krishna Nagar and Janakpuri, represented by Bedi and BJP veteran Jagdish Mukhi — seen facing a tough fight. By contrast, AAP leaders Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia and Somnath Bharti were seen winning comfortably, the poll showed.

What started as a slow campaign has picked up steam dramatically since BJP announced Bedi as its CM face on January 19 at a late night press conference. But her entry, the poll shows, appears to have contributed to the slide in BJP’s fortunes. Her projection as the CM face has ruffled many feathers in the party’s state unit and exposed BJP to AAP’s taunts that she was roped in as a scapegoat in case the saffron party lost the election. Else, Modi would have been blamed for the loss. According to the survey, the top issue for Delhiites has shifted from “women’s safety” to “inflation”, with unemployment, corruption, communal harmony and poverty alleviation being other areas that have seen a rise in voters’ concerns.

The headline inflation rate may be easing according to central government data, but that hasn’t prevented it from rising 15 percentage points as an issue that most concerns voters between the November-December and January surveys. The return of price rise as an election issue will be seen as a validation of AAP’s poll pitch that promises cheap electricity and free water to Delhi residents. Bedi, whose projection was aimed at capitalising on the women’s safety issue given her reputation as a tough and no-nonsense former cop, doesn’t stand to gain much from an inflation-focused election.

The last week saw BJP unleashing all its might. Modi is scheduled to address four rallies in the Capital while a parade of Cabinet ministers and as many as 120 MPs from various states are working with BJP cadre on the ground.

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