Delhi elections 2015: Why the Delhi poll result is a big deal for Mission Modi

NEW DELHI: For all its assertions to the contrary, the outcome in Delhi will have repercussions for BJP and the Modi government.

A win will further cement BJP's status as the country's strongest political formation, boost the party's spirits ahead of the coming battles for Bihar and Bengal and give the central government the confidence to attempt difficult reforms.

Conversely, an adverse result will re-energize opponents, spur efforts for replicating the “BJP-versus-rest“ scenario of the sort that's unrolled in Delhi and be a fillip for moves to hinder government from implementing its agenda, beginning with enactment of laws to replace the ordinances it has brought.

BJP never expected its opponents to help it implement measures it has outlined to push growth, and was determined, as indicated by the promulgation of ordinances and readiness to convene joint sessions of Parliament, to press ahead with its plans despite continuing opposition. AAP's win will insert a new element in play even if does not change the numbers in Parliament.

With his penchant for high-wattage fights, Arvind Kejriwal can be a thorn in the Modi government's side.Kejriwal as CM cannot im plement quite a few of his promises, like placing Delhi Police under state government control, if the Centre is not on the same page.Some of these demands, for instance statehood for Delhi, may be impossible to meet and can be the ground for political attrition.

Chances of AAP, with its savvy for agitations and rallying people around difficult demands, putting the blame on the Centre are high. PM Narendra Modi seemed to acknowledge the risk when he told one of his rallies that the Delhi results might distract his attention from his agenda.

AAP's victory will revive the appeal of populism just after an election where it had come a cropper and will be a deterrent against prescriptions such as user must pay for utilities. This will be at odds with the known Modi government belief that consumers don't mind paying so long as they are assured of availability and quality of services.

There'll be consequences for the authority of Modi and party chief Amit Shah.BJP insists it has the upper hand in the battle. But even optimists concede the local unit has been found wanting and made heavy weather of what promised to be a smooth election a couple of months ago. The party's prospects hinge on the estimate that the Modi factor hasn't lost its potency and that Shah's “booth management“ efforts will help the party compensate for organizational weaknesses.

Both will gain in stature if the party stops short of snatching a defeat from the jaws of a win. But a setback will embolden those who've been criticizing the Modi-Shah duopoly furtively. Frustrated aspirations within the party have been anxiously waiting for such an opening.