Decisive vote is divided in Rampur, Moradabad
The candidate who manages to attract the minority vote in a block is at an advantage and reciprocally, when the vote gets split between two or more Muslim candidates, the BJP - which symbolises ‘Hindu’ interests - stands to gain.
By Aarthi Ramachandran, TNN |
MORADABAD/RAMPUR: The picture regarding the distribution of the Muslim vote in the minority-community heavy districts of Moradabad and Rampur in Western Uttar Pradesh is still unclear but the current trends indicate a division of votes between the SP on the one hand and parties such as the BSP and the Congress on the other.
However, a polarisation of this crucial community-vote on the eve of the elections could see the SP surging ahead of others, though not on all seats.
In Moradabad and Rampur, the minority population ranges between 40-60% in many of the 13 constituencies falling in the two districts where Muslim vote is often decisive. The candidate who manages to attract the minority vote in a block is at an advantage and reciprocally, when the vote gets split between two or more Muslim candidates, the BJP – which symbolises ‘Hindu’ interests — stands to gain.
In the Moradabad City seat, for instance, the division of Muslim votes has helped the BJP win several elections. The sitting MLA, Sandeep Agarwal, a BJP member who crossed over to the SP on being refused a ticket this time, won because of this very factor in the 2002 polls.
However, now with Mr Agarwal contesting from the SP there is uncertainty whether the former BJP man will be successful in attracting the bulk of the minority vote. The Congress has fielded a promising Muslim face from the seat and the RLD also has a Muslim contestant here.
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According to local residents, the question who the Muslims will support as a block — to defeat the BJP — will be decided two days before the polls. The SP, for one, is surely hoping that this phenomenon — known as the “qayamat ki raat” (the final night) — will manifest in its favour in this seat as well as in the districts as a whole. That is because division of Muslim votes is also expected in Rampur district’s Swar-Tanda constituency where it appears split between the SP’s sitting MLA Kazim Ali Naved — Congress leader Noor Bano’s son — and an independent candidate being propped up by SP’s own Azam Khan.
Mr Khan, who is the MLA from the neighbouring Rampur seat, is supporting his aide Kauser Khan from behind the curtains on account of the intra-party rivalry with Mr Naved.
In Rampur, however, Mr Azam Khan’s persona and development projects initiated by him including a private university, on the lines of the Aligarh Muslim University, have seen even sections of the Hindu vote accruing to him in the recent municipal corporation elections.
He is expected to retain his strangle-hold over the constituency. In Kunderki constituency of Moradabad, the story is slightly different. SP’s sitting MLA Mohammad Rizwan seems to have rubbed a lot of groups, both Hindu and Muslim, the wrong way. In the seat, of about 2,84,000 voters, a significant share of the Muslim vote (1,37,000) is made up of ‘Turqi’ voters — Muslims believed to be of Turkish origin.
The Muslim community here had supported Mr Rizwan in the 2002 elections in a bid to make a solid candidate win. This time round, however, with a strong ‘Turqi’ candidate — Mr Haji Akbar Hussain — contesting from the BSP, this four-time MLA from Kunderki looks set to win.
Mr Hussain has also managed to a get the support of a section of the Jats who are cut up with the SP MLA and has the assured support of the Dalits — the BSP’s core vote. In Sambal, another constituency in Moradabad, which is considered an SP fortress, the SP’s sitting MLA Nawab Iqbal Mahmood is facing tough competition from his party’s Shafikur Rahman Barq.
SP’s Moradabad MP is openly canvassing support for his son who is fighting on the RLD ticket here. Here too, with ‘Turqi’ Muslims being a dominant group in the community, Mr Barq’s son Mamluku Rehman and another candidate from the Congress who belong to this group could split the SP’s vote. Constituencies in Moradabad and Rampur districts go to the polls on 18 April in the third phase of polling.
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