NEW DELHI: Most states could stop reporting new cases of Covid-19 as soon as May 7, barring populous ones such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, according to a Mumbai School of Economics and Public Policy (MSEPP) paper. All this is dependent on anti-infection curbs being observed, said authors Neeraj Hatekar and Pallavi Belhekar, both economists.
They studied infection patterns in other countries such as China and Australia, the manner in which microorganisms multiply and other data. The paper, The End is Near: Corona Stabilizing in Most Indian States, estimates when each state will stop reporting new cases and says as many as 11 will reach this goal by May 7. Hatekar and Belhekar said India as a whole will do so by May 21.
The paper however cautioned states against allowing largescale movement of migrant labour as it could negate the benefits of the lockdown and lead to further complications.
“It's not true that throughout Covid-19 infections follow an exponential path,” Hatekar said. “Initially, the pace of growth will increase and then flatten out when it hits the carrying capacity.” The calculations showed Maharashtra with the upper limit at 24,222 cases with an estimated end date of May 21for new cases. Gujarat is likely to hit 4,833 cases with an expected end date of May 7.
Maharashtra had 9,915 Covid-19 cases while Gujarat had 4,082 cases on Thursday. The state carrying capacities and expected end dates are subject to changing data and are updated on a daily basis.
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Methodology The paper employs logistic distribution, generally used to model the growth of a colony of microorganisms in a restrictive environment. This model allows estimation of carrying capacity--the maximum number of individuals at which a colony of microorganisms will stop growing. Using this approach, the study estimates the time at which the system reaches carrying capacity and stops reporting new cases.
"The initial stage is when the number of cases increases gradually, followed by the exponential phase of accelerated growth," said Belhekar, professor at Mithibai Motiram Kundnani College of Commerce & Economics. "The flat portion reflects when states hit their carrying capacity and no new cases are reported."
The study used data from countries such as Australia, Thailand, South Korea, New Zealand and China that have stopped reporting new cases.
The data shows an S-shaped curve as countries reach their plateau, or new cases stop being reported, similar to how colonies of microorganisms grow in a limited environment. In the case of the coronavirus, the environment is restricted through physical distancing, testing, contact tracing and quarantine.
