Congress may not trigger N-deal on Wednesday
The Congress, which is still weighing the political cost of ending its association with the Left, has decided not to precipitate matters at Wednesday’s meeting of the UPA-Left coordination committee on the deal.
By ET Bureau |
NEW DELHI: Tomorrow will not be trigger day for the Indo-US nuclear deal. The Congress, which is still weighing the political cost of ending its association with the Left, has decided not to precipitate matters at Wednesday���s meeting of the UPA-Left coordination committee on the deal. Like previous engagements, Wednesday���s meeting will also disperse after perfunctory discussions. The two sides may also decide to stay engaged for some more time. This suits the allies, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. Although the allies��� prime concern is on averting an election, they are also for keeping the Left by their side. SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has made its intention to try out a new political wardrobe known, will like more time to fitting into his new role. It is also major political call for the Congress as it could mean prolonged separation with the Left. In a fractured polity, such separations are not rated politically prudent.
But an inconclusive meeting of the nuclear panel could upset the prime minister���s time-line. Mr Manmohan Singh was expecting his party to psyche out the Left soon. Mr Singh, who has set a mid-July deadline for completing IAEA negotiations with the IAEA, has already directed diplomats in Vienna to begin the ground work for notifying the safegaurds agreement with the IAEA. Congress��� reluctance to take a call in a frenzy or haste is understandable. It has to keep in mind three factors while taking a decision on the deal. One, can the deal, which would be a policy trophy for Manmohan Singh, be operationalised before the life of the Bush administration? There are several imponderables. Although the US is promising to work with India for taking it to its logical end, the negotiations at the NSG may not be hassle-free. If India fails to secure a NSG waiver by September, the US Congress may not be in a position to complete the remaining work on the agreement.
Second, the Congress president will have to assess whether the deal has the potential catch popular imagination. Not many are willing to bet on its electoral potential. A significant section of the Congress fears that a communal campaign against deal could come in the way of the party���s aggressive wooing of Muslims.Equally worrying is the prospect of an estrangement from the Left. The Left���s backing for the Congress has been a source of legitimacy for the party and its leadership in many traditionally anti-Congress constituencies. Even with a reduced score, the Left will be a player after the next Lok Sabha election. If the government goes ahead with the deal, the trust between the two sides would have evaporated.
On his part, Mr Karat has not budged an inch from his stated position. He has convened a meeting of his party���s politburo on June 29 to discuss his party���s future course of action. But his politburo may have to wait as the government is unlikely to concretise its stand before that.
But an inconclusive meeting of the nuclear panel could upset the prime minister���s time-line. Mr Manmohan Singh was expecting his party to psyche out the Left soon. Mr Singh, who has set a mid-July deadline for completing IAEA negotiations with the IAEA, has already directed diplomats in Vienna to begin the ground work for notifying the safegaurds agreement with the IAEA. Congress��� reluctance to take a call in a frenzy or haste is understandable. It has to keep in mind three factors while taking a decision on the deal. One, can the deal, which would be a policy trophy for Manmohan Singh, be operationalised before the life of the Bush administration? There are several imponderables. Although the US is promising to work with India for taking it to its logical end, the negotiations at the NSG may not be hassle-free. If India fails to secure a NSG waiver by September, the US Congress may not be in a position to complete the remaining work on the agreement.
Second, the Congress president will have to assess whether the deal has the potential catch popular imagination. Not many are willing to bet on its electoral potential. A significant section of the Congress fears that a communal campaign against deal could come in the way of the party���s aggressive wooing of Muslims.Equally worrying is the prospect of an estrangement from the Left. The Left���s backing for the Congress has been a source of legitimacy for the party and its leadership in many traditionally anti-Congress constituencies. Even with a reduced score, the Left will be a player after the next Lok Sabha election. If the government goes ahead with the deal, the trust between the two sides would have evaporated.
On his part, Mr Karat has not budged an inch from his stated position. He has convened a meeting of his party���s politburo on June 29 to discuss his party���s future course of action. But his politburo may have to wait as the government is unlikely to concretise its stand before that.
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