Cong yet to stitch up UP alliance

NEW DELHI: It’s just weeks to the UP election blockbuster and all parties seem to have figured out their parts in the story but for the Congress.

The party, which is yet to find out whether it is a lead actor or a guest artist, is yet to get its alliances in place a week away from the close of nominations for the first phase of polling. The party admitted on Monday that it was talking to all political outfits in the state with the exception of the BJP and SP.

However, with the BSP in no mood to oblige the Congress, and smaller parties such as Apna Dal and JD(U) having allied with the BJP, union minister Priyaranjan Dasmunsi’s assertion on Monday that his party would put together a “tagda” (strong) alliance in the state seems to be wishful thinking.

It has been difficult for the Congress to think of itself as a bit player in UP with the party’s ‘genext’ leading the charge through Mr Rahul Gandhi. Party president Sonia Gandhi has also been personally overseeing preparations for the polls. In effect, the party opted to make claims about going solo for most of the last few months and continues retain that air as it attempts to cobble together an alliance with CPI-Jan Morcha and the RLD.

Given that alliance clicks, the best case scenario for this Congress-led front would be between 35-40 seats, according to some analysts. Such a dream performance would need the RLD to do well in western UP and the Jan Morcha to wrest a few seats from the SP.

This would also require the RLD to buck the anti-incumbency trend and the Jan Morcha to put up a few good Muslim candidates. The Congress would also have to retain its tally of about 25 seats. Despite such a performance, if the BJP-led alliance is successful in wooing the upper-castes and a small section of the non-Yadav OBCs through Apna Dal and JD(U), the story could be different.

With Brahmins estimated to constitute about 11% of the state and other upper-castes such as Rajput and Bania together constituting about 12-13% together, the BJP could hold the key to who remains in power, if does well. The BSP has a fixed vote base among the scheduled castes and some backing from Muslims (constituting a total of 16-17%).

The SP would have the winning combination if it is able to corner Muslim vote through an alliance with the UDF. While all this implies that the situation in the state continues to be fluid, it seems clear that the smaller outfits the Congress needs already seem to have found partners.

aarthi.ramachandran@timesgroup.com