Cong pins hopes on anti-Modi votes

AHMEDABAD: The Congress thinks Narendra Modi is not invincible and can be defeated. What it is hoping for is just a 3-5% shift in votes. “Cracks have started to appear in Mr Modi’s camp. Gujarat is up for a major surprise,” claimed Sanjay Nirupam, former Shiv Sena MP, presently handling the Congress machinery in Baroda. The Congress think tank believes that if it could manage to swing a small percentage of votes, around 3-5% in its favour, Mr Modi would be defeated.

The party’s in-house psephologists are concentrating on pockets that may go against the saffron camp. In the last election, the Congress had polled 39.59% of all the total votes, while Mr Modi took away the cake with 49.85% votes. “A 3-5% shift against Mr Modi will in effect make him lose 6-10% of votes. This is enough to halt the BJP juggernaut,” a member of the Congress team of technocrats explained.

Besides, it is also trying to exploit change in the atmosphere. “Last time, it was purely a communal divide that clearly helped the BJP. But this time, the division is more on cast-basis than on religion,” said Mr Nirupam.

He points out that large sections of the society, like Patels, Koli and tribals, have publicly denounced Mr Modi. “All three put together constitute nearly 40% of voters. Taking them further away from the BJP will weaken the party,” he said.

Accordingly, the party has orchestrated its strategy. Patels and Kolis are largely concentrated in Saurashtra and the state’s coastal region, where it has been concentrating. The tribals were never with the BJP, so it’s unlikely they will vote for the saffron camp this time. Further, it is hoping for the divisions in the BJP to come to the fore. It has been harping on alleged anti-Modi feelings in the Parivar.

Besides, the Congress relies on fronts like Sardar Patel Utkarsh Samiti, an anti-Modi platform launched by dissident BJP leaders. “All put together, a small, but decisive shift against Modi is really possible,” a Congress leader said. But an election, as they say, is much more than numbers.