China's influence on Pak poses security concerns for India

NEW DELHI: China's influence on an "unstable" Pakistan will grow further and the military and nuclear nexus between them will deepen in the coming years posing security concerns for India, a leading think-tank has said.

"In an unstable Pakistan, Chinese influence will grow further... The Pakistan government and the army will become even more dependent upon China," the New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses has warned in its report.

The think-tank also said, "India has to be mindful of the growing Chinese influence in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir..."

China's state-run media recently reported that Beijing will go ahead with financing the construction of two 650 MW nuclear reactors in Pakistan disregarding the concerns raised by India and the United States.

China also vowed to take its "all weather" military ties with Pakistan to a "new high", as the two countries are collaborating in the manufacture of advanced fighter aircraft.

The 156-page report titled 'Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability And Implications for India' said: "it is very much likely that agencies in Pakistan will continue with their present strategy of using terror as a tool of pressure against India."

The report said that an increasing unstable Pakistan may manifest in several ways - Lebanonisation (being divided into several small pockets) or in the worst case scenario it may even face disintegration.

"There are important minorities in Pakistan that may together with the Barelvi Muslims constitute the majority. If such group engages itself in a bloody struggle with the Taliban, it may lead to a Lebanonisation of the Pakistani state," the report said.

Recently, several Barelvis, Shia and other minority sects places of worships have been targeted by the Taliban militants.

In most recent attack, the Data Darbar Sahib shrine of Hazrat Ali Hajweri, considered the patron saint of Lahore, was targeted by two suicide bombers on July 1 that killed 45 people and wounded over 200.

If the infighting within the nation continues, the report warned then "multiple centres of powers will emerge with the army being the most important."

The report said that the Pakistan army's behaviour might become unpredictable due to a variety of factors including the increasing radicalisation of a section of it.

"The army will get more aggressive as it finds itself fighting to save Pakistan: and its own identity. This could result in more sabrerattling and brandishing of the nuclear threat," it said.

"Within Pakistan, the society will get fragmented. The ethnic, linguistic and provincial fault lines may get accentuated. Insurgency in Balochistan might get worse. Sindh and NWFP will not remain unaffected. They will challenge Punjab's dominance," it said.