Centre's quota move: Heartland challenge triggered gambit

NEW DELHI: The move to offer 10% quota for the economically backward was in the works for a while, but gathered pace after upper caste discontent surfaced in recent state polls following the Modi government’s introduction of an amendment to overrule the Supreme Court order relaxing the stringent SC/ST Atrocities (Prevention) Act.

The restoration of the tough provisions, such as mandatory arrest, in the law to curb atrocities against Dalits and tribals soon led to a movement in Madhya Pradesh that aimed at rallying upper castes in protest against the decision.

BJP strategists did not pay much heed to the nascent campaign till big crowds at its meetings shook saffron leaders. The poll result in MP, uprooting the BJP government after 15 years, bore the stamp of upper caste peeve against their natural political choice.

After the saffron defeat in MP, a senior Union minister from the state told TOI, “SAPAKS misled our core voters (upper castes).” The decision on the “poor among forwards” was discussed among a set of top BJP leaders and possibly a few RSS figures but remained a secret that was sprung at the meeting of the Cabinet on Monday.

The government’s dramatic decision to alter the reservation architecture of decades by introducing quota for the “poor among the forwards” seeks to counter anger among its core support base, a potential desertion that could hurt it big in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In fact, it is not just the upper caste agitation of MP. The quota fires have been raging for a while among dominant castes across states — among them Patels in Gujarat, Marathas in Maharashtra, Jats in Haryana and Kapus in Andhra. At least three of them have constituted the foundation of BJP’s strength and have appeared ready to strike at its roots as caste sentiment subsumes other loyalties. The BJP refused to heed the Patidar agitation in Gujarat, rebuffing Hardik Patel’s demand for quota and even putting him in jail on charges of sedition to nip his campaign in the bud.

The Hindutva party nearly paid a high price in its stronghold in December 2017, with Congress riding the support of Patels to a good tally after years of being on the margins of PM Narendra Modi’s home state.

The quota for poor among forwards seeks to win over all these communities besides sending a feel-good signal among traditional upper castes like Brahmins, Thakurs and Vaishyas who have long sought quota of their own.

Crucially, the BJP defeat in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh polls last month has been attributed to anger among the masses, especially the youth, over lack of jobs. Quota is seen to have the emotive pull to douse some of this disappointment over jobs.

That the move betrays desperation is evident from the fact that it would face a serious judicial scrutiny on two scores: breach of 50% quota ceiling and the constitutionality of defining “backwardness” on economic basis.