Census 2011 data shows growth rate of Muslims at an all-time low, say political scientists

NEW DELHI: As political parties formulate their views on the census figures on religious communities, academics have struck a note of caution against the possible use of the data to indulge in the politics of polarisation. Political scientists say the Census 2011 data shows that the growth rate of Muslims is at an all-time low – the decadal growth rate has declined to 24.6% in 2011 from 30% in 2001.

"This is a positive outcome, which nobody is talking about," sociologist Dipankar Gupta told ET.

"The media is playing into the hands of troublemakers who are trying to say that Muslims are growing in number. The decadal growth rate has actually come down. Add to this the fact that one-third of Muslims are living in urban areas – it gives you a positive outcome."

Psephologist Yogendra Yadav questioned the timing of the release of religion data, ahead of the Bihar elections. "The whole idea is to create a siege mentality so that an overwhelming majority begins to feel and behave like an endangered minority," Yadav said. "This is a classic game that has been played by Narendra Modi in Gujarat, where he convinced the majority Hindus that 8% of Muslims would outnumber them."

Citing a survey conducted right after the Godhra riots, Yadav said when Hindus and Muslims were asked to estimate the percentage of the Muslim population, they overestimated the proportion by a factor of 4-5.

Yadav said demographers believe that the proportion of Muslims, at 14.2% in 2011, would stabilise at about 16% of the population over the next 20 years. "There is not even a remote chance of Hindus being outnumbered, except in some tiny pockets in Assam or Bengal," he said.

Sudha Pai, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, echoed similar views.

"The picture being painted is that Muslims are growing in number. It is not so simplistic. But unfortunately this is the picture being painted. The reality is that Muslims are a minority. The BJP is bound to use the Census 2011 data to indulge in polarisation."