Can Cong & Jan Morcha unseat Mulayam in UP?

NEW DELHI: Can Mr V P Singh, the one-time rallying point against Rajiv Gandhi, and the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress launch a joint venture in UP at the time of Mandal-II against Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, the chief beneficiary of Mandal-1?

The assembly elections in the Hindi heartland is still nine months away, but the moves on the ground and the talks in the power corridors here indicate the possibility of the ‘Mandal raja’ and the Congress coming closer as part of an ongoing attempts for a new political re-alignment in the state.

The Thakur from Manda, may have lost out in the post-Mandal churning as his OBC colleagues in the erstwhile Janata Dal, like Mulayam Singh and Lalu Yadav rode away on his Mandal-cycle by flaunting their Yadav roots.

Yet, Mr Singh who has been a sort of political spent-force for close to two decades, is now trying a revival of sort by propping up the Raj Babbar-led Jan Morcha in UP, which is trying to emerge as a rallying point of anti-Mulayam, non-BJP and non-BSP forces.

A day after CPI general secretary A B Bardhan extended support to the Jan Morcha at a Lucknow rally, there are hints from senior Congress leaders that their party is also looking at this outfit as a potential ally for the next assembly polls. ”It is too early to propose a formal alliance between the Congress and Jan Morcha.

But I will not rule out the possibility the two parties coming closer in some manner against SP at the time of assembly polls in UP,” a top Congress political manager said.

Both the sides have already opened informal co-ordination, and campaigning, though separately, against the Mulayam regime on similar themes.

A look at the social moorings of the small local parties that have so far come under the umbrella of Jan Morcha clearly shows an attempt to mobilise some of the anti-Yadav OBCs in the state.

The Apna Dal, is a party of Kurmis who have been feeling lost out to the Yadavs under the Mulayam regime. Bharat Samaj Party of the Rajbhar castes also has the same grouse against Mulayam. The Jan Morcha has also roped in the breakaway BSP faction led by Dr Mazood.

A non-Yadav OBC consolidation could play at least a spoiler job to SP which has in the BSP the formidable contender for power. A Congress-Jan Morcha attempt is also on to woo RLD chief Ajit Singh.

On the other hand, the Congress, which approaches this assembly election with the sole aim of dislodging the Mulayam regime than any pretensions of capturing UP, sees a tactical understanding with the Jan Morcha useful on many counts. There is a realisation that in the caste-ridden UP, the Congress may need some outside help to make at least a presentable show in the assembly elections.

The Congress also acknowledges that its efforts to woo back the Muslim from Mr Yadav could gain momentum only if the SP chief loses power. There is also a realisation that a major section of the upper castes, who are resentful to UPA regime’s OBC quota proposal in the higher educational institutions may rather stay with the BJP or the BSP.

In the given situation, the Congress camp says, it would be a political necessity for both the Congress, with support-base reduced to a small sections of Muslims and Brahmins, and the Jan Morcha to complement each other’s limited strength to become a worthy spoiler against Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav.

If the CPM opts to remain loyal to Mr Yadav this time too, the CPI’s decision to move close to Jan Morcha will ensure a Bihar like Left split in the small Communist pockets of UP.