Can BJP increase its Rajya Sabha tally? Yes & No

New Delhi: The date of March 26 occupies everyone's mindspace right now, at least all political parties. On that day elections to 55 Rajya Sabha seats will be held where the BJP hopes to improve its tally and the opposition is desperate to ensure it does not.

In the 245-member Upper House, members from across 17 states are set to retire.

In the Rajya Sabha, the BJP has only 82 members, well short of the 120 required for a simple majority. Though the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 97 seats. Attaining 120 may be not only unpragmatic but highly ambitious for the BJP. But it definitely wants to better its tally from the current 82.


Question is, can they?

The BJP which started its mission 'Congress-mukt Bharat' with the 2014 general election, colouring the electoral map of India saffron, started facing a slew of defeats in December 2018 when the party lost three crucial states -- Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan under Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Vasundhara Raje Scindia's watch.

As Rajya Sabha election is determined by the state MLAs, this may spell doom for the BJP. The party lost Punjab, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, too.

However, considering Rajya Sabha seats from all these states are not falling vacant simultaneously, and given the BJP won a populous state like Uttar Pradesh, may help the saffron party.

While the BJP is tipped to lose a seat from Madhya Pradesh, where it is pulling out all stops to ensure it does not happen, it's also likely to lose a seat from Chhattisgarh. The party may lose a couple of seats from Rajasthan as well. However, the BJP is likely to get two more seats from Assam and one each from Haryana, Meghalaya and Odisha.

Interestingly, this won't be the last Rajya Sabha election. Karnataka, Arunachal Pradesh and even India's most populous state - Uttar Pradesh will need re-election for Rajya Sabha members and it will be good news for the BJP. For instance, the BJP which has one Rajya Sabha seat from Uttar Pradesh is likely to get nine more when it goes to polls. But that won't happen this March 26. The BJP will have to wait till later this year to take advantage of its earlier electoral performance in those states.

As for now, it will lose some and win some.

Meanwhile, Rajya Sabha MP from Madhya Pradesh Prabhat Jha wants to return to the Rajya Sabha again. There is also talk of bringing BJP General Secretary Ram Madhav to the Rajya Sabha from the Madhya Pradesh quota.

Out of the three seats in the Rajya Sabha from Odisha, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) will get two and the BJP one. BJP's National Vice President Bijayant Panda can be sent to the Upper House from Odisha. The BJP will win one seat in Odisha for which the party will have to seek support from the BJD.

Veteran BJP leader C.P. Thakur and R.K. Sinha from Bihar are also lobbying to return to the Upper House. However, BJP may go for a new face from Bihar, sources said.

(Anindya Banerjee can be contacted at anindya.b@ians.in)

--IANS

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