Can Afghanistan offer ‘other Indus’ option to India against Pakistan?

NEW DELHI: Can Afghanistan offer India the ‘other Indus’ in its strategic offensive against Pakistan? Both countries are actively exploring this via possible Chenab-like run-of-the river projects on Afghanistan’s eastern rivers. Of particular interest is river Kabul, senior officials, speaking off record, told ET.

This river has some features identical to River Chenab in Jammu & Kashmir, including similar recorded average flow of around 23 million acre feet. Afghanistan desperately wants to tap irrigation and electricity potential of its eastern rivers, most of which flow untapped into Pakistan.

In retaliation to Uri attacks, India had upped the ante by giving the go-ahead to three run of-the-river projects on river Chenab. These had earlier been put on hold due to objections raised by Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty.

Pakistan, however, does not have any such treaty with Afghanistan. The rules governing flows of Afghanistan’s eastern rivers, mainly Kabul, Kunnar and Chitral, into Pakistan are just some internationally accepted principles.

“By helping Afghanistan build some of these run-of-the-river projects, India will end up sending a very strong signal to Pakistan, which is already quite concerned over repeated Afghan requests to donors on this issue. So we need to examine the fallout closely,” an official familiar with the issue told ET.

When Afghan President Mohammed Ashraf Ghani visited India last month, officials said, he specifically raised the possibility of developing Afghanistan’s eastern river system while conveying gratitude on India completing the Salma dam project despite serious terror threats.

TALKS ON
The two sides are in touch on this subject, said officials, adding that quiet official-level deliberations and visits are underway to discuss specific projects. Ghani is slated to be back in India in December first week to inaugurate the Heart of Asia ministerial meet on Afghanistan in Amritsar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi too is expected there for the inaugural.

Afghanistan, officials said, has long made the argument that a proper irrigation system could transform the economy of some of its eastern provinces like Nangarhar, Pakhtia and Khost – currently hotbeds of terrorist activity. Improved agricultural prospects, according to Afghanistan’s assessment, will incentivise people against terrorism, besides ending support to foreign terror groups.

The problem for Pakistan is that even though it’s a lower riparian state, it has not exploited these water systems on its side of the Durand Line, another unsettled border. As a result, Pakistan may end up buying electricity from Afghanistan if it were to build these projects soon with the help of India and other international donors.

For India, the gains are many in terms of having a role in exploiting river systems entering Pakistan on its West and the East. But building these dams, officials said, will be fraught with risk. Indian engineers were constantly targeted by Pakistan-based terror groups in Salma as well as on the Zaranj-Delaram road. “These are issues we will have to look closely at as we examine this possibility,” an official told ET.