BSP has eaten into BJP's vote, not Congress'

NEW DELHI: Conventional wisdom has it that the advent of BSP in the electoral arena of any state spells bad news for the Congress. The elephant���s foray in states other than UP has been looked askance by Ms Sonia Gandhi and her party colleagues, and has been one of the factors behind the rupture in ties between the two parties.

Data compiled by the Election Commission on the performance of various political and individuals in the just-concluded assembly polls in Karnataka, however, presents a different picture. And more than the Congress, it is the BJP which has been hurt by the BSP���s presence, lending credence to the view that Ms Mayawati���s political project of expanding her party���s base in Uttar Pradesh and outside has spelt trouble for the both the principal political players.

Consider the trends emerging from Karnataka, which has come to be described as the BJP���s gateway to the south. Despite the fact that the BSP drew a blank in the election, there are at least 31 assembly seats where the BSP���s share was more than 5% of the total votes polled.

The Congress accounted for 19 of these seats (Hanur, Kollegal, Muddebihal, Sarvagnananagar, Kalghatgi, Belur, T Narasipur, Heggadadevankote, Raichur Rural, Krishnarajpet, Chamarajanagar, Raichur, Piriyapatna, Chamundeshwari, Jagalur, Homnabad, Sandur and Gundlupet), while the BJP could win only eight (Mudigere, Aurad, Hogaribommanahalli, Sindgi, Tiptur, Basavakalyan, Gulbarga Rural and Indi). The JD(S)��� share was three (Bidar South, Aland and Sakleshpur), and the list was round off by an independent, who romped home from Malavalli.

The trend was visible in the elections held earlier in HP and Gujarat too, confirming the view that the BSP���s presence in the electoral fray had the potential of wrecking the BJP���s prospects more than the Congress���. In HP, the BJP emerged victorious in 41 of the 68 assembly seats last year, while the Congress could win only 23 seats.

Even though the BSP could emerge triumphant in only one seat (Kangra), its vote-share enabled the BJP to steal a march over the Congress in 8 constituencies. The Congress too gained in as many seats, but when you consider the fact that the BJP won 41 seats in all, it���d become clear that the Ms Mayawati helped the Congress in winning a larger proportion of seats than the saffron outfit.

The story was more of the same in Gujarat, where Mr Narendra Modi helped the BJP win 117 of the 182 seats in the elections held late last year. The Congress could win only 59 seats, while the BSP drew a blank. The party, however, emerged as a spoilsport for the BJP in 11 constituencies, helping the Congress bag these seats. The BJP, on the other hand, could win only 10 seats because of the presence of BSP candidates.

The trend, if its persists, could sound ominous for the BJP in the three poll-bound states where it is in power (MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh). The BSP���s entry in the electoral field in these states could adversely effect the saffron outfit���s hopes of retaining power.