Bookies favour BJP, but say bets will be off if any leader is dead

MUMBAI: The odds favour BJP and betting volumes on the upcoming state elections are likely to exceed Rs 10,000 crore, but all bets will be called off if any prominent leader dies, bookmakers taking bets in Delhi and Mumbai said.

The ‘force majeure’ clause, the first time such a caveat has been introduced into the unofficial satta bazaar, comes in the wake of recent bomb blasts in a Narendra Modi election rally in Bihar. Bookies fear the upcoming state elections in Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh may witness violence.

“Therefore, all bets would be calledoff in the event of death of any prominent leader in blasts or other violent acts during polls,” a Delhi-based member of a betting syndicate said.

Those fears apart, bookies expect BJP to do well in all four states going to polls. “Modi Mania may ensure a comfortable victory for BJP in all states,” the Delhi-based source said. In Rajasthan, bookies expect the BJP to easily defeat the Congress government.

The odds on the saffron party winning 101 out of the 230 assembly seats in the state are 14 paise over every rupee bet.

On the other hand, bookies are willing to pay out 26 paise over every rupee bet on the Congress managing to win even 60 seats in the state. Similarly, there is an offer of Rs 2.8 over ever rupee bet if the Congress manages to win at least 75 seats.

Congress now has 96 seats. In Delhi, bookies are willing to pay 24 paise over every rupee bet if the BJP wins 28 or more seats out of the 70. Individuals placing such a bet would lose their money if BJP’s seat count falls below 28. The BJP had won only 23 seats in Delhi in 2008.

Bookies add the Aam Aadmi Party is unlikely to win more than eight seats in Delhi, but will play spoil sport. In the past, there were also separate bets on chief minister candidates.

This time though bookies say such wagers are not being taken as CM candidates are mostly obvious. In MP, BJP is expected to come back to power. Bookies are willing to offer Rs 1.10 over every rupee bet on the Congress winning 70 or more seats out of 230.