Maharashtra BMC Election Exit poll Results 2026: Big blow for Uddhav–Raj Thackeray alliance as pollsters predict BJP-led Mahayuti majority

The Axis My India exit poll for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections 2026 has projected a clear advantage for the BJP-led alliance, suggesting a strong performance despite a moderate voter turnout in Mumbai.

According to the survey, voter turnout stood at approximately 54 per cent, a factor that Axis notes could impact seat share, particularly for the BJP+ alliance.

Axis Exit Poll Seat Projection for BMC 2026

As per the Axis exit poll, the BJP+ alliance is expected to emerge as the largest bloc in the BMC, with a projected 131 to 151 seats. The alliance includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena (Shinde faction).

BMC Results 2026: Where to track Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation results live

The UBT+ alliance, comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), MNS, and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), is projected to win 58 to 68 seats, placing it firmly in second position.

Meanwhile, the Congress-led alliance (CONG+) is expected to secure a smaller share, with 12 to 16 seats, while other parties and independents could collectively win 6 to 12 seats.

JVC Exit Poll Also Sees Mahayuti in the Lead

A separate JVC exit poll echoes a similar trend. It predicts that the BJP-led Mahayuti could win around 138 wards in the BMC. The Thackeray-led alliance is projected to secure 59 wards, while the Congress may bag 23 wards. The remaining seven wards are expected to go to smaller parties and independents.

Saam TV Exit Poll: BJP-Shiv Sena Ahead in Mumbai

According to the Saam TV exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 84 seats, while its alliance partner Shiv Sena could bag 35 seats in Mumbai.

On the other side, Shiv Sena (UBT) is projected to win 65 seats, the MNS around 10 seats, and the NCP (SP)—part of the UBT-MNS alliance—could secure two seats.

Pune Civic Polls: BJP Emerges as Largest Party

In Pune, the Saam TV exit poll predicts the BJP as the single largest party with 70 seats, followed by the NCP with 55 seats. The NCP (SP) is expected to win 10 seats, while the Shiv Sena, which contested independently, could bag 12 seats.

The Congress is projected to win eight wards, while Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS may secure five and two seats, respectively.

Thane Remains Shiv Sena-BJP Stronghold

In Thane, considered a stronghold of Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, the Shiv Sena is expected to win 72 seats, while its ally BJP could bag 26 seats, according to Saam TV.

The Sena (UBT) and MNS are likely to secure three and two seats, respectively.

Jubilant Data Studio Exit Poll: Similar Trends Across Cities

The Jubilant Data Studio exit poll also places the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance ahead in Mumbai, projecting 127 to 155 seats. The UBT–MNS–NCP (SP) alliance is expected to win 44 to 64 seats, while the Congress-led alliance could secure 16 to 25 seats.

In Pune, the BJP is projected to win 79 to 92 seats, followed by the NCP with 48 to 61 seats. In Thane, the Shiv Sena is expected to secure 69 to 76 seats, with the BJP winning 26 to 30 seats.

Party-Wise Seat Expectations According to Axis

The exit poll data shows the following contest pattern:

• BJP contested 136 seats
• Shiv Sena (Shinde) contested 90 seats
• Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 164 seats
• MNS contested 52 seats
• NCP (SP) contested 12 seats
• Congress contested 150 seats
• VBA contested 50 seats
• RSP contested 2 seats

Smaller parties and independents also featured across multiple wards, contributing to the “Others” category.

Vote Share Prediction: BJP+ Leads Comfortably

The Axis exit poll also provides insights into party-wise vote share, with a margin of error of ±2 per cent.

The BJP+ alliance is projected to secure a combined 42 per cent vote share, placing it well ahead of rivals. The UBT+ alliance is estimated to receive 32 per cent, while the Congress-led alliance stands at 13 per cent.

The remaining 13 per cent vote share is expected to be divided among other parties, including smaller regional outfits and independents.

How Does This Compare with BMC 2017 Results?

In the 2017 BMC elections, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena had emerged as the top two parties, with Congress and NCP trailing behind. The Axis exit poll indicates a significant shift in alliance dynamics, with the BJP-led bloc now poised to dominate the civic body.

Impact of Voter Turnout on BMC Results

Axis My India has highlighted that the 54 per cent turnout could play a crucial role in shaping the final outcome.

With polling concluded, all eyes are now on January 16, when the counting of votes will begin.

Voters and political observers are advised to follow official updates for accurate results as counting progresses.

Inputs from agencies