BJP may boost Left prospects

KOLKATA: West Bengal chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee had laid the foundation stone for the Rs 2100-crore modernisation package for Kolkata airport on December 29, 2008. External affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee was present at the inaugural function along with CPM MP from the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat Amitava Nandi.

Nandi, who is contesting from Dum Dum for a second consecutive term, was heard telling voters about the event. "We have forced the Centre to shelve its earlier plan to engage private players to carry out modernisation of the airport. We have also tried our best to prevent entry of private players in insurance. It is the Left parties which had lodged a strong protest against the UPA government���s plan to invest employees��� provident fund money in the share market," he said.

Nandi became famous in 2004 after defeating BJP strongman and the then Union minister Tapan Sikdar in Dum Dum. Sikdar had won the seat twice and in both cases, he had defeated the CPM candidate. Naturally, defeating BJP in Dum Dum, once a CPM stronghold, was very crucial for the Marxists in West Bengal and Nandi had made that possible.
This time, Sikdar is apparently not a threat to Nandi. The Trinamool Congress and the Congress are fighting the elections jointly and Trinamool Congress MLA from Bongaon, Sougata Roy, is in the race.

Interestingly, the CPM is trying to find out how many votes Sikdar could get this time. This is because the Marxists feel the BJP might help them indirectly retain the seat, once it manages to corner a sizable chunk of votes.

Trinamool is probably aware of the CPM gameplan. Its leader Mamata Banerjee, is therefore, trying hard to dissociate herself and her party from the BJP. "BJP is a communal party. In 2004 polls, we had suffered major defeats because we were with the BJP. The CPM had attempted to brand us as a communal party as we had a tieup with the BJP. But this time, we are not with the BJP and no one should have any confusion about this," Mamata was heard telling voters in Kolkata South constituency.

After the Left Front came to power in West Bengal in 1977, the CPM returned empty-handed from Dum Dum twice ��� in 1998 and 1999 parliamentary polls. However, Asutosh Laha of the Congress had won the seat in 1984. But Laha���s victory was a result of a sympathy wave that swept the entire country after Indira Gandhi���s assassination.

Two consecutive defeats in Dum Dum, once a CPM stronghold, had made the party leadership shaky. Tapan Sikdar of the BJP had secured 50.69% of the total votes polled in 1998. Sikdar increased his margin by securing 51.59 % of the total votes polled in 1999. When CPM won in 1996, the party got 47.30% votes. In 2004, when Nandi wrested the seat from Sikdar, the CPM polled 49.62% votes.

The CPM did soul-searching after its consecutive defeats in Dum Dum. Party insiders also did not rule out the possibility of sabotage by a section of party leaders, including a minister. But Nandi���s victory in 2004 had galvanised the party activists, who are much more united now as the Congress and Trinamool are fighting the Marxists jointly.

Nandi had won the seat by 98,484 votes in 2004. This time he is likely to face a tougher fight not only because the two opposition parties are apparently united now, but also because of a strong anti-incumbency factor which might play a crucial role in determining the results.

Despite all these, Nandi���s comfort factor lies in his party���s impressive victories in 2006 in all the seven assembly segments under the Lok Sabha seat. After delimitation of Assembly and Lok Sabha seats, two Assembly seats of Belgachia East and Rajarhat were taken out of Dum Dum. Instead, two new assembly segments of Dum Dum North and Rajarhat-Gopalpur had been created and clubbed with the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat.

Taking away of the Belgachia East assembly segment from the Dum Dum LS seat is being seen as a blessing in disguise for Nandi. The seat was won by West Bengal transport minister Subhas Chakraborty by a mere 1749 votes. It was the only Assembly segment which gave Nandi a poor margin.

Neither the Trinamool Congress nor the Congress had won any of the seven assembly seats under the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat in 2006 Assembly elections and this is their greatest drawback.