BJP banks on Modi & Sangh, Congress on Siddaramaiah and Ahinda

BENGALURU: After Gujarat, Karnataka is the first of four states where the BJP and Congress will lock their horns in 2018. While the other three states –– Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh –– are BJP-ruled, Karnataka is Congress-ruled.

Like Gujarat, BJP in Karnataka is pinning its hopes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “magic” to get them across the winning line in a state considered to be the saffron party’s gateway to the South.

BJP has a strong network in Karnataka and a deep-rooted presence of the Sangh Parivar and its affiliates. It is also the only state in the South which has had a BJP government from 2008-13, led by BS Yeddyurappa, DV Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar. BJP is currently the principal opposition party with 44 seats, four more than Janata Dal (S) in the 224-member House.


Congress considers Karnataka a bastion that has saved the party even when the rest of the country voted against it. Unlike Gujarat or Uttar Pradesh, the party has a strong grassroots network in Karnataka which party general secretary KC Venugopal is working at strengthening further. Like the BJP, Congress has already set up its booth-level committees and is frequently reviewing these, though not with the stern discipline that the saffron party is known for.

The Congress rule from 2013 has been free of the kind of sex and corruption scandals that the earlier BJP dispensation faced, but there have been allegations of nepotism against chief minister Siddaramaiah and appeasement of minorities, backward castes and Dalits, referred by the Kannada acronym AHINDA, a votebank that the CM has carefully developed.

While the Congress points to flagship schemes of the government like the Anna Bhagya Yojana (free rice sheme) given to members of all castes and communities below the poverty line and various pro-farmer schemes that benefit even the upper castes in rural areas, senior leaders admit that the focus has been on AHINDA over the past four years.

“We were initially worried and upset about it. But that is what will save us now, when the BJP comes out with all their guns blazing,” a cabinet minister from North Karnataka told ET.

“Dalit boys have got cars worth Rs 14 lakh to drive as taxis, every small mosque, church and obscure temple has got almost a crore each for repairs under Siddaramaiah’s schemes. They are all very grateful and that will help us in the 2018 polls.” BJP shrugs off the AHINDA focus as irrelevant.

“Unlike in Gujarat, it is the Congress which will face anti-incumbency here. And we are much better prepared than them to take full advantage of it,” a BJP functionary who declined to be identified told ET. “Our national president Amit Shah and his team will come and work out every detail of each constituency including which communities need to be approached and how to win their support.” BJP leaders admit that there is some resistance to Yeddyurappa as their CM face, as announced by Shah several months ago, both within the party and from the electorate.

There are some rumblings against Siddaramaiah also in the Congress, but those have been put aside due to the party’s grim determination to retain Karnataka at any cost and the awareness among all leaders that he is the only face that is currently acceptable, across Karnataka.

A senior BJP leader said: “Shah will come down and sort out all the internal differences, we are sure of that. Whatever shortcoming Yeddyurappa faces among the electorate, that will be compensated by Modi’s image. The PM is a karyakarta in elections, not the head of administration. He will come here as many times as is needed to turn the tide.”

Currently, according to internal surveys conducted by both parties, they are neck-and-neck in the electoral race, at between 85 and 95 seats each. JD(S) could turn out to be king-maker if this situation continues, as the assembly will be hung.

Currently, the caste maths, when done and compared with Gujarat, shows a balance that is tilted more to the Congress, which counts the minorities, Dalits and other backward castes (with the exception of the 8% Vokkaligas who favour the JD(S)) among its voters. But, communal polarisation factor may be a game-changer in Karnataka for the BJP like in Gujarat.

“We expect to score in the coastal region, Mumbai-Karnataka region and central Karnataka, where the Congress fared well in 2013. Polarisation is already helping us there,” the BJP functionary said. A Congress leader, however, said Siddaramaiah and the state administration were well aware of this factor. “The CM has directed control of law-and order with an iron hand...,” he said.