Bihar verdict: BJP tally would have been lower if contest was bipolar

NEW DELHI: Though BJP’s hopes of Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party and Jan Adhikar Party (of Pappu Yadav) denting the prospects of the Grand Alliance did not bear fruit, the saffron party benefited from the candidates of the self-proclaimed 'secular brigade' in 26 assembly segments.

Election Commission statistics suggest that BJP’s victory in 26 assembly segments were made possible because of the votes snatched by candidates of SP (4 assembly segments), BSP (7), JAP (2), NCP (2), CPI (2), CPI (ML) (1) and (8) rebels of RJD-JD(U).



Candidates of the above parties are believed to eaten into the support base of the Grand Alliance and not BJP, adversely impacting the electoral fortunes of GA in 26 seats. But for these 'secular' candidates, BJP’s tally would have shrunk to 53 seats. In the largely bipolar contest, statistics suggests that the winner in 89 assembly segments benefitted from marginally strong candidates who came third.

In 89 seats, the votes polled by the winner was less than the sum of the votes polled by the runner up and second runner up. However, it cannot be concluded for sure that the votes garnered by the third candidate would have automatically benefitted the runner up in all cases.

According to the EC statistics, RJD-JDU-Congress victories in 51 seats polled less vote than the combined vote of runnerup and third place candidates. But, Grand Alliance candidates won in 26 of them despite the third place candidates being from the ‘secular brigade’, including AIMIM.