Bihar polls: NDA eyes big gains with its new Dalit-OBC partners

PATNA: The NDA is hoping the coming together of three parties dominated by Dalits and OBCs — Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM-S, Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP and Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP with BJP would bring a major shift in Bihar's caste-based politics, building a formidable block of Dalits, OBCs and upper castes.

While this is the first time in Bihar's electoral history that BJP will play senior ally, contesting 160 seats against the 102 it contested in 2010, it'll also mark the debut of the three Dalit-OBC parties as NDA allies. In the last state elections, while BJP played junior ally to JD-U, Paswan was an ally of Lalu Prasad's RJD. Kushwaha and Manjhi didn't have a separate identity.
The total vote share of Dalits and OBCs is between 60% and 65% of the electorate and NDA hopes to garner a large chunk of this vote-bank harping on the Dalit-OBC leadership of its allies.

A senior BJP legislator conceded in the last couple of days there were occasions when they felt nervous as Manjhi repeatedly rejected the seat-sharing formula, insisting on more seats.

"At times, it appeared that we'd be forced to part ways with HAM-S because of Manjhi's rigidness. Finally, better sense prevailed on all the allies. We reached a seat sharing formula that'd upset the Mahagathbandhan's plans," said the legislator.

Sociologist Hetukar Jha said caste and religion decide election results in Bihar. "With three major Dalit/OBC parties joining NDA, there's every possibility of change in equations. The final outcome will depend on how good the NDA leaders are in changing the equation on the ground and holding it together," said Jha, who retired as head of department, sociology, Patna University.

"If NDA attracts non-upper caste communities with help from BJP's allies, there'll be a shift in Bihar's caste equation," he added.

Analyst Ramadhir Singh said BJP's social engineering formula may change the basics of state politics. "The way BJP has saved its alliance, unlike the Mahagathbandhan, we expect a new beginning in Bihar's politics," he said.