Bihar polls: EBCs keep both NDA, JDU-RJD-Congress-NCP grand alliance guessing

PURNEA: Shakuntala Devi has made up her mind. She will vote for Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U) in the upcoming assembly elections just as she did the last time round, she said, because the chief minister has brought about many good things in her Bishambar Chak village in Banka district’s Amarpur assembly segment.

Her forthrightness marks herb as something of a rarity amongst the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) to which her dhanuk community belongs.

Most members of the EBCs, which make up about 32% of the electorate in Bihar and could make or mar anybody’s chances, come across as extremely reticent.

This is sure to keep both the JDU-RJD-Congress-NCP grand alliance and the BJP-led NDA on tenterhooks till the last vote is cast.

The studied silence of the EBCs is in contrast to the vocal assertion of the members of bania, yadav, kurmi and koeri communities, among other backward classes, as much as the upper castes, about their political choices and quite uncharacteristic of politically conscious Bihar.

“Dekhenge jidhar sabka jhukav hoga, jiski lehar hogi usko hi vote de denge (we will vote with the wave),” said one person, giving an answer typical of the EBC community in the runup to these polls. “Jidhar gaon ke log denge udhar hi hum bhi denge (we will vote for whoever the others in the village are supporting).”

Analysts could reason that this could mean upper-caste dominated villages weaning away EBCs to their side or strong OBC dominated villages carrying the community along with them. “I had voted for Nitish in the last Lok Sabha elections and I will vote for him again this time,” said Bhothan Mistri,who belongs to carpenter community, with endorsement of a member of potter community and one backward Muslim at Kumar village in Sikandra assembly segment of Jamui district.
The three villagers spoke up after much evasion, and only after one Bhumihar member had left the scene.

About two months before the polls, if the grand alliance can bank on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s goodwill, the opportunity for NDA lies in the fact that many people remember the wave in favour of Narendra Modi ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The early start to BJP’s campaign also seems to have added to the latent memory of the party’s winnability among EBCs.

But while the members of upper castes assert that they will not vote for the JD (U) because Kumar had parted ways with the BJP in 2013 over Modi’s elevation as prime ministerial candidate, the EBCs have not written off the JD (U).

In fact, unlike the upper castes, they are all praise for Kumar’s good work and hesitate to say that they will not vote for him. “People feel Nitish is good, but they are hesitant because of Lalu (Prasad),” said Rajesh Mandal, who hails from kaivart among EBCs, of Rautara village of Kodha assembly segment in Katihar district.

Vikrant, of Bind community of Jayantigram-Bindtoli in Sahebpur Kamal assembly segment of Begusarai district, appeared just as cross with Kumar’s decision to join hands with long-time political foe. “I will vote for Lalu-Nitish. But Nitish should not have been disappointed with the Lok Sabha loss and should have gone alone,” he said.

Most other members of the EBC refrained from saying anything so categorical, though, giving the two main alliances much to chew over. It is going to be hard work for both NDA and the grand alliance to garner support of the EBCs.