Bihar polls: As polling starts, it's 50-50 by all reckoning

PATNA: Fifty-fifty appears to be the latest addition to the political lexicon of Bihar. The refrain echoes the mood in independent quarters that the electoral race is, at least at this stage, too close to call. Even invocations of the fabled political instinct may fail in most cases to draw people out of the caution mode.

There are exceptions, of course -communities staunchly aligned with one side or the other, political partisans and the bravehearts who have rushed to predict a landslide for one of the combatants even before the first vote is cast on Monday.




On paper, the grand alliance of RJD, JD(U) and Congress looks the favourite largely because Muslims, Yadavs and Kurmis -the three communities which form the core of the "secular" challenge to BJP -together add up to a hefty 35 per cent of the electorate. There are a few factors which are working to the advantage of the grand alliance of RJD, JD (U) and Congress. The partners together polled 45 per cent against NDA's 38.8 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in the face of a Modi wave which swept the state. The parties are confident that they can only improve upon the numbers they logged. This may not appear to be an extravagant expectation either, considering the Modi factor has ceased to be what it was in April-May 2014.

Then, the loyalty of Yadavs towards Lalu Prasad and their seething desire for a stake in government after a decade-long disempowerment appears to have overpowered their resentment towards Nitish Kumar, leading them to transfer their votes to JD(U) candidates. This is happening even in places like Nalanda, Nitish's home district, marked by legendary Yadav-Kurmi rivalry .

Lastly, Nitish's brand remains strong, especially among most backward castes and sections of Dalits, even Kushwahas, something which can help the combination bring in votes from outside its core constituency too.

But these advantages may not turn the "secular" side into a surefire winner as the NDA's numbers may not come down from what it notched with the help of Modi's projection in LS polls.