Beneath the wave: Result data shows historic changes
A deep dive into the result data shows that while little seemingly changed at the aggregate level, there have been some historic changes between the lines.
Is there a story beyond the BJP’s second Lok Sabha sweep or is it just a Modi wave that has flattened all previous poll patterns? A deep dive into the result data shows that while little seemingly changed at the aggregate level, there have been some historic changes between the lines
BJP seats stay widespread, INC’s go south BJP’s seat spread in the north, Hindi heartland, south, east and west has remained largely the same over the last 20 years or four Lok Sabha elections. But the Congress’s wins have grown more dependent on the south.
Others left out Despite this being the election of big regional wins in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, 2019 marks the lowest point for “others” after 1991. The dominance of the BJP has shut out space for most others. More turnout, more support Higher voter turnout in these polls had led to theories that it indicated strong anti-incumbency. However, this is not borne out by data. BJP and its allies won from seats that saw high voter turnout — a sign of the voter base being enthused
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Percentage point jump in turnout compared to 2014 Difference in seats stays same, almost Between 2014 and 2019, neither BJP nor Congress saw significant changes in number of seats won, except for gains in Bengal, Karnataka, Orissa and UP (for BJP) and Punjab, Kerala and Tamil Nadu (for Congress). Gains in one state largely made up for losses in the other.
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