Battleground Tamil Nadu: New equations in Tamil poll maths

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu is called the `wave' state: Elections here have typically thrown up decisive mandates. Will 2016 be different?

Is the fragmentation of the Dravida identity making TN a psephologist's nightmare?

In 2006, the DMK-led front swept to victory. Five years later Jayalalithaa roared back to office. Barring MGR's dominance in the late '70s and '80s, TN has swung between two alliances, every five years.

This time around, analysts say, the election may show that TN no longer remains a wave state. "For the first time, this is a no-wave, no-anger election," says Rajeeva Karandikar, director, Chennai Mathematical Institute.

On the roads, voters talk not just of AIADMK and DMK but there's a buzz around the Third Front, comprising Vaiko's MDMK, Vijaykanth's DMDK and others.

"TN is increasingly getting fragmented along caste lines," says historian AR Venkatachalapathy. "There's life beyond the big two now. Three political fronts plus the BJP and PMK make this an election where there are no obvious winners."

If Jayalalithaa's supporters hope a division in the anti-Jaya vote will benefit Amma, her rivals say the AIADMK alliance has shrunk. Erstwhile allies, Vaiko's MDMK and DMDK's Vijayakanth are together. Vaniyar-dominated PMK is on its own.

"You cannot see this election through the prism of traditional Dravidian politics because ideology holds no meaning anymore," says R K Radhakrishnan, political analyst. Indeed, the traditional arithmetic of two parties with a 30% plus vote who would look for smaller allies is now being questioned."Even the Congress has split, Vasan's Tamil Maanila joining the Third Front. Traditional vote banks are eroding," says Karandikar.

Not just the maths, but the chemistry of TN polls is being challenged. While the primary battle remains for the intermediate and backward castes who led the Dravidian revolution, the anger of social groups feeling left out of the empowerment process could now hold the key in an election of potentially thin margins. Recent attacks on Dalits have ignited caste wars that challenge the idea of a state at peace with social change. "Small Dalit sub-castes are asserting their identity," says D Raja, CPI veteran. Many Dalits are now choosing the Left, he says. "In the last assembly there were 8 CPI MLAs of whom 5 were Dalit."

"The Dravida movement was always an OBC movement," Radhakrishnan says."With the rise of Dalit parties such as PT and VCK, the Dravida parties' supremacy is being challenged."

The dominance of the two main Dravida parties is also being challenged with the rise of Vijayakanth, a Naidu. He hopes to emerge as king, if not kingmaker. "Vijayakanth is no longer the flash in the pan he once appeared to be. He's gaining from the drop in credibility of both main parties,"says Venkatachelapathy. The two main parties have responded to these challenges with more freebies. But is the Dravida movement at the cross-roads where freebies are seen as mere substitutes for genuine empowerment?

Venkatachalapathy says freebies are now seen as entitlement. Voters expect them but there's no guarantee they'll vote according to who gives them the goodies. He further points out: "This may be the last election where the Dravida giants are the main contestants. In Kerala the two key alliances are stable. In TN the smaller parties keep switching sides."

Politics here will never be the same again: TN is now a mirror cracked: The days of thumping majorities may be over. "For the first time it's not mandatory for a small party to attach itself to the Big Two," says Karandikar. "TN is shifting from its Dravida focus to a Dalit-Backward focus."