Australia’s met bureau ups chance of El Nino in 2015 from 50% to 70%

NEW DELHI: The chances of El Nino weather phenomenon occurring in 2015 have increased to 70 per cent, from 50 per cent according to earlier forecasts, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

El Nino refers to warmer than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. "The ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Nino Alert, indicating at least a 70 per cent chance of El Nino occurring this year," the bureau said in a statement on April 14.

All international climate models monitored by the bureau indicate that El Nino thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June, the statement said.
However, the accuracy of model outlooks during the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year.

"Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Nino levels. Large areas of warmer-than-average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean," the statement said.

El Nino is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia. However, April to June is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia due to very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean.