Assembly polls: PM Narendra Modi’s success rate better than Rahul Gandhi’s

PATNA: In the first major pan-India electoral test since parliamentary elections 2014, PM Narendra Modi has emerged as a more effective campaigner for BJP than his adversary Rahul Gandhi for Congress. But the fight was neck and neck, indicating that state elections are seldom swayed by national politics or star campaigners.

ET conducted an analysis of the public meetings and rallies held by the two leaders and the constituencies in which their respective parties and allies won. The analysis reveals Modi held meetings touching 28 Assembly constituencies across four states. BJP and allies won in 13 seats registering a success rate of 46.4 per cent.

Gandhi, who had to cancel rallies in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala because of viral fever, addressed rallies touching 27 constituencies. Congress and its state allies won in 12, which works to a success rate of 44.44 per cent.

A closer look at the campaigning data reveals BJP stressed on Assam. PM addressed rallies in 13 Assembly constituencies and BJP won in all except Algapur constituency which was won by AIUDF. In 2011, Asom Gana Parishad, a BJP ally in the elections, had won the seat. Gandhi’s success rate in the state was lower with his party winning five of the 12 constituencies where he held rallies.

In West Bengal, Gandhi had a better success rate than Modi. BJP, a marginal player in West Bengal politics, won in only one of the six seats where Modi campaigned. However, Congress and Left allies won in six of the 12 constituencies where Gandhi campaigned.

Both Modi and Gandhi did not show much result in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. While Gandhi was forced to cancel his election campaign, BJP or its allies scored no victories in any of the constituencies where Prime Minister campaigned.