Assembly Election 2012: Three scares for Congress in Punjab

NEW DELHI: Now that the votes have been cast and the fate of the candidates sealed in ballot boxes, Congress campaign managers may pause to ponder why a seemingly one-sided election appears to have turned into a too-close-to-call contest. The party that began with a clear advantage of the anti-incumbency riding against the SAD-BJP government ended up contending with three challenges in particular.

Rebel Candidates

First, it faced as many as 38 rebel candidates, adding up to nearly a third of the 117 assembly seats in the state. In a bipolar polity, where victory margins are often wafer thin, the presence of a large number of rebels can prove debilitating. Although the party sacked 13 leaders, it struggled to contain the fallout of large-scale rebellion.

Mission Impossible for Manpreet

Manpreet Badal, Parkash Singh Badal's nephew and the chief of the People's Party of Punjab, does not appear to have dented SAD's core vote bank in the Malwa region. SAD had won 19 of the 65 seats in Malwa in the last polls. Manpreet became the face of the Liberal-Left in the state, but probably did not resonate with the 'Panthic vote'. The alliance may give Left a chance to regain its lost clout in the state.

Super Performance by BSP

The third factor could be a better performance by BSP than Congress bargained for. This could be critical in seats where the Dalit votes prove decisive. Since Dalits traditionally vote against Akalis, Congress counts on this segment to romp home in several constituencies.

The outcome in Punjab will be a crucial pointer of the impact of the perceived mood against the UPA government.