Assam Assembly elections: BJP on track to achieve hat-trick, says poll survey

Guwahati: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on track to achieve a remarkable hat-trick in the upcoming Assam Assembly elections, securing a third consecutive term in power, according to the latest Tracker Poll conducted by People's Pulse Research Organization.

The survey, carried out from November 15 to December 31, 2025, projects the BJP as the single largest party with 69-74 seats in the 126-member Assembly, enabling it to cross the majority mark independently. When combined with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, the coalition is expected to touch the 90-seat mark, signalling a resounding victory amid a fragmented opposition landscape.

Dr. Rajan Pandey, Political Analyst and Director of People's Pulse Research Organization, compiled the report. "This Tracker Poll captures the pulse of Assam's electorate at a pivotal moment. The BJP's performance reflects not just incumbency advantages but a deepening connection with diverse voter groups. With the opposition in disarray, particularly parties like AIUDF and UPPL fighting for survival, the NDA's path to victory appears clear."


According to the tracker Indian National Congress (INC), which is slated to win 25-29 seats. NDA allies, including the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) with 8-11 seats and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) with 8-10 seats, bolster the coalition's strength. Smaller parties face bleak prospects, the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is projected at 2 seats, the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) at 2, Raijor Dal at 1 or 2, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) at one, CPI (M) at 1, and independents/others at 1.

According to the survey this projection positions the NDA well above the 64-seat majority threshold, allowing the BJP to form the government on its own for the third time—a feat mirroring the Congress's historical three-term streak in the state. The survey attributes this to the BJP's ability to maintain its core vote base while expanding into new demographics.

On vote shares, the BJP is forecasted to garner 39%, a slim 2% lead over the Congress's 37%. While narrow, this margin is significant in Assam's compact electoral landscape, where even minor shifts can translate into substantial seat gains. Other parties' projections include AGP at 7%, BPF at 5.5%, UPPL at 1.2%, AIUDF at 2.5%, Raijor Dal at 0.9%, AJP at 0.7%, CPI (M) at 0.8%, and others at 5%. The Congress's vote share increase stems largely from AIUDF's erosion, with Muslim voters shifting allegiance as observed in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. However, factors like delimitation, NDA's robust social alliances, and weak opposition partners hinder the Congress from converting votes into seats proportionally.

The survey's Chief Minister Preference poll reveals a closely contested race among top contenders. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma leads with 30% support, narrowly ahead of former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal at 28%. Congress MP and state president Gaurav Gogoi follows closely at 27%, highlighting his personal appeal despite the party's broader struggles. Other figures, including Debabrata Saikia (3%), Hagrama Mohilary (1%), Atul Bora (1%), Dilip Saikia (1%), Badruddin Ajmal (1%), and Akhil Gogoi (1%), trail significantly, with 7% undecided or preferring others.

The survey added, "While Gaurav Gogoi's popularity poses a challenge in the CM race, it hasn't translated into equivalent support for the Congress party. Himanta Biswa Sarma's lead, though slim, is bolstered by strong backing from women voters, even among tribals, where male preferences lean toward Sonowal."

The Tracker Poll delved into voter perceptions, revealing the NDA's clear edge across multiple fronts. When asked which party is better for Assam's development, 48% favoured the BJP compared to 38% for Congress. On government formation likelihood, 55% predicted a BJP win versus 40% for Congress. A decisive 55% believed the BJP deserves another chance, against 45% who disagreed.

The survey highlights the BJP's uniform lead in parameters like development, welfare, community preferences, CM choice, party affinity, and demographics across age and gender. This dominance stems from sustained electoral successes since 2021, including wins in autonomous councils, panchayats, municipalities, by-elections, and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The NDA has not only retained its base but expanded into new pockets, particularly among tribal and OBC communities.

In contrast, the Congress shows marginal gains, primarily from AIUDF's declining Muslim voter base in Barak Valley and Lower Assam. AIUDF's free fall, exacerbated by leader Badruddin Ajmal's perceived business interests and controversial alliances, has left it politically isolated. Respondents across Muslim communities viewed Ajmal as self-serving, affirming Congress as the viable anti-BJP force. AGP's dependence on BJP is evident; its base erodes without alliance support. UPPL, once an NDA partner, faces existential threats after poor showings in recent BTAD elections, with Bodo voters reverting to BPF. The BJP-BPF reconciliation positions the alliance to sweep BTAD regions. Smaller outfits like Raijor Dal and AJP remain static, with limited pocket influences.