As the SP goes into a tailspin, the poll prospects for parties in 2017 are set to change

Mahabharat in Yaduvansh’ has been the recurring theme for headline writers in recent weeks. It’s quite perfect because within the Samajwadi Party (SP) it has been a Yadav versus Yadav fight, complete with proxies. While there may not be a hundredplus cousins, uncles, grandfathers and grand-uncles at war in Lucknow, there are certainly more than a handful by modern political standards.

There is also a second wife. With chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s dismissal of his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav from his Cabinet, the SP is preparing for what could well turn out to be its final denouement. People are also witnessing the demise of the type of politics practiced by political descendants of Ram Manohar Lohia and Charan Singh, who drew support from ‘bullock capitalists’ despite being disparate politicians. After broke away from the parent Janata Dal in October 1992, he became the sole custodian of Lohiaite-centrism in Uttar Pradesh.

But with time, instead of breaking free from caste- and community-based support, he got increasingly enmeshed in post-Mandal identity politics. The old landed gentry, once forming the mainstay of Mulayam’s political base, transformed themselves. Anew generation moved beyond villages and into new economic activities. Yet, the only tactical adjustment he made in post-liberalisation India was inducting a handful of people who secured ‘access’ into the world of glamour and were able to ‘manage’ the requirements of Delhi’s Durbar. Consequently, the SP’s political base remained steady — and stagnant, and the froth fermented.

All in the family

In many ways, the predicament in which Mulayam finds himself is similar to the state that DMK chief MK Karunanidhi was in when he was unable to settle succession issues within his party. The DMK patriarch, like the SP supremo, was torn between meeting the conflicting aspirations of his children and of his nephews and grand-nephews. Like Mulayam Singh, he, too had to contend with children from different wives. Initially, Mulayam had made a clear delineation of powers when he sent his son Akhilesh to the Lok Sabha in 2000 while retaining his brother Shivpal in state politics since the latter was elected to the state assembly 1996. But after Mulayam selected his son as chief minister in 2012, he laid the ground for the personal bitterness to grow sharper.

His inability to put an end to this rivalry was indicative of his moves being determined not just by matters political, but by pressure tactics. In the protracted struggle within the party, he also hasn’t displayed consistency in his decisions. This can be deduced as either ploy or failing abilities. Mulayam’s inability to manage the aspirations of various members of his clan suggests the limitations of ‘secondary’ political dynasties in circa 2016 India.

This problem has been more acute in families like Mulayam’s where the ‘horizontal’ expansion of the leadership was undertaken before any ‘vertical’ transfer of command was undertaken. This was necessary because Akhilesh was very young when Shivpal was inducted into politics. Lalu Prasad Yadav, too, in Bihar faced a similar problem when his brotherin-law Sadhu Yadav threatened to become a major force. But Lalu stymied his plans.

It would be easy to jump to the conclusion that the battle within the SP indicates the struggle between the old and new style of politics. There is no doubt that with youth on his side, Akhilesh represents the forces of the future. His supporters would consider that the SP’s chances of continuing in power after the 2017 state elections were in any case bleak and it would be better to begin preparations for 2019. This, they would believe, can be conducted earnestly without the ‘liabilities’ represented by the likes of Shivpal and alleged power brokers like Amar Singh.

Akhilesh wishes to fashion himself as the champion of modernity and emphasises development and governance. But for the major part of his tenure, he has willfully been faithful to the traditional base of the party and has made no attempt to demarcate a distinct political base.

Poster boy

Consequently, he remains more a poster boy or a presumptive idea. He can either be given a look-in by the electorate or he can hope to stage a comeback. But it remains tough for him to secure a consecutive mandate. If the hara-kiri now underway within the party does not end in compromise and culminates in a split in the SP’s legislative party, it has the potential to hand the BJP the biggest advantage it could have hoped for in the run-up the polls. Any possible chance that the BJP sees will be used to impose President’s Rule in the state.

Such tactics, though overturned by the courts in Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh, will appear lucrative for enabling the BJP to control the state machinery during polls. Alternatively, Akhilesh may also try to secure an advantage by recommending the dissolution of the state assembly and seeking fresh polls. It is too premature to assess which party is likely to benefit from the SP’s implosion since much would depend on the final outcome. Events in UP have reached the stage of the slogovers. The game is still on.

(DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.)