Analysis: Assembly polls put PM Narendra Modi in a position of strength

The 2022 round of assembly polls were set up almost like the midterms in the US, coming on the back of the Covid pandemic, consequential economic distress and a testing security environment. Thus, the results will serve as a vindication of PM Narendra Modi's approach, strengthening his hands to stay on course and take bolder and far-reaching decisions where needed.

From a strictly domestic perspective, the assessment that heartland politics would recede into caste-loyalty zones proved incorrect. And Modi's welfare approach aimed at tying up a motley crew of economically similar caste groups into a 'labhaarthi (beneficiary)' class, came through. The UP results have, in fact, bared the limitation of caste-based parties in expanding their core vote.

For the BJP, this is a big plus because it puts to rest doubts that Modi's appeal in state elections is waning. On the contrary, this round of polls convey the opposite. The BJP was battling internal dissension in UP, in-fighting in Goa and had to change two chief ministers in Uttarakhand. Yet, the party emerged victorious mostly on the back of a strong Modi campaign.


This puts the PM on a strong political wicket compared to most leaders across important democracies. At a time when instability and conflict inform a troubled world order, the message coming from India is one of political stability and continuity.

Implications for Reforms, Security
Modi, it may be noted, is among the few G-7 or D-10 leaders to remain and grow in power since 2014. These results remove any uncertainty or doubt in the run-up to the general elections of 2024.

What this means on the policy front is that the PM can press ahead with his post-Covid economic recovery plans, the clutch of reforms measures spelt out in the budget last month, and hold his side of the balance in centre-state matters - an equation that could have ruptured further had results not been positive for the BJP.

On national security, there will be a continuity of approach. Not that an adverse result would have prompted any change, but even the slightest notion of any weakening of political authority in New Delhi has been negated. In other words, the message going out to immediate adversaries in Beijing and Islamabad is that Modi remains well-ensconced, despite all the military pressure and political chill.

The message on the global democracy canvass is even stronger for Modi. The left liberal campaign, as his supporters call it, which seeks to brand him 'anti-democratic' and club him alongside autocrats, is likely to lose official resonance and traction in western capitals as the US and Europe would see the results as an approval of Modi's policies, particularly his pandemic management, and craft their conversations accordingly.

More importantly in a world set up for realignment, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unstable oil prices and an aggressive China, global conversations around pivotal issues will change. As democracies coalesce to fashion their response, forge common standards and understanding, policy synchronisation will become crucial in the coming weeks and months.

Modi is undoubtedly presiding over a historically tumultuous period. From nuclear, space and hi-tech defence technology to 5G, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, a whole new set of rules and a battle on who will make those rules is gaining momentum. Big policy changes will require political credence, parliamentary approval and unison. The way numbers have been stacked up, Modi will enjoy broad support, including in the Upper House.

That said, the opposition is clearly diverse. The Congress has weakened and challenges will emerge from regional parties and now a growing Aam Aadmi Party. This would mean that BJP's understanding of nationalism could come up against strong regional aspirations, a conversation the BJP will have to handle with deftness and finesse.

In sum, the conversations within and outside the country will require political nimbleness, flexibility and pragmatism. Modi's advantage from these elections is that he can now hold them from a position of strength.