Amid Kerala deluge, fear of drought in many parts of south

In a cruel irony, surging rains in Kerala have lifted the monsoon’s performance in south India to an 11% surplus so far, the best among all regions of India. The figure, however, does not accurately represent the extremely skewed rain distribution in the region.

Outside Kerala and coastal Andhra, half the districts in south India are grappling with deficient rainfall.

Of the 95 districts in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalseema put together, 47 have had deficient rains so far (shortfall of 20% or more), including five where the deficit is more than 60%.


Rayalseema is the worst hit. The subdivision has the country’s highest deficit of 42%, having received less rain so far this season than even west Rajasthan.

Even in Tamil Nadu, where the overall rainfall of -8% is in the normal range, 22 districts out of 32 in the state have had deficient rains.

Karnataka too shows same rainfall mismatch as Tamil Nadu
The rain deficit districts in Tamil Nadu are both along the east coast and in the state’s interior, while most districts along the Kerala border have had excess rainfall. Karnataka too shows the same mismatch between the state’s overall rainfall figure, which is 3% above normal, and district wise data. Half of the state’s districts, 15 out of 30, have received deficient rains even as Kodagu reels under flood fury. The subdivision of north interior Karnataka has a shortfall of 21%.

Met officials attribute the uneven distribution to peculiar features of this year’s monsoon, wherein strong westerly currently brought copious rainfall to the west coast, including Kerala and coastal Karnataka, while low-pressure systems originating from the Bay of Bengal mainly affected central India. “Rayalseema and Tamil Nadu get rainfall in this season mainly during breaks in the monsoon, when easterly systems become active in the south. That didn’t happen this year. Also low-pressure systems from the Bay of Bengal have mainly moved along the monsoon trough in central/ north India, not making a big impact in the south so far, except in Telangana,” said D Sivananda Pai, the lead monsoon forecaster at IMD.

Indeed, Telangana has had a good monsoon, with late rains making up for early deficits. Only six out of the state’s 31 districts have major rain shortfall. Rain bounty has also showered on neighbouring coastal Andhra subdivision, which has received surplus rainfall of 21%. Flood-ravaged Kerala has a monsoon surplus of 40%, with 11 of the 14 districts receiving excess rains.

South India is the only region to currently show a monsoon surplus. Central India, where rains have been good over most parts except Gujarat, has a tiny monsoon deficit of 0.3%. The deficit in northwest India is 6.7% while east and northeast India has a huge monsoon shortfall of 28.3%. Overall, the monsoon in the country is currently 7% less than normal, that is, in the ‘below normal’ range.