All about eve: Can BJP do a UP among women in 2019?

The big news in last year’s cabinet reshuffle was the appointment or transfer of a woman cabinet minister. This year’s cabinet reshuffle created waves as well and it was all due to the appointment or transfer of — well you guessed it — a woman minister.

But the big difference is this. While Smriti Irani’s shift to the textiles ministry was widely considered a demotion, Nirmala Sitharaman’s move to the defence ministry has been hailed as a revolutionary, path-breaking step, one that will aid the cause of women in combat and put them in pole position when it comes to deciding issues critical to national interests. Remember, Sushma Swaraj is external affairs minister and along with Sitharaman will be members of the cabinet committee on security, the government’s top decision-making body on national security and defence issues.

In 2014, the Narendra Modi government came to power with a lot of expectations and hope. The government’s first priorities included promoting growth, beefing up the country’s sagging defence infrastructure, curbing inflation and increasing jobs and prosperity for all, among other things. This was the wish list of the country at large, investors, traders, common man, farmers, salaried class etc.

PM Modi had his own wish list as well, as we have all come to know later. The quiet work that the government did to root out out black money led to demonetisation, the strengthening of the benami property laws and the subsequent crackdown on black money operators.

Apart from this, PM Modi also wanted the government to focus on promoting the cause of women. This has perhaps never been said publicly or articulated in that manner but subsequent government policies and actions are evidence that this is what the government wants to do. Promote more women to positions of power — Sitharaman’s appointment is evidence of that — and promote more pro-women policies like increased maternity benefit, the free LPG connection programme, support for the cause of ending triple talaq etc etc. It doesn’t take too much effort to understand the reasons here.

Women voters in India are becoming increasingly important. There was a time in the 1950s and 1960s when more men voted than women. This started changing in the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century. The second decade has dramatically altered the landscape for women voters in India. Rajeshwari Deshpande, professor of politics at the University of Pune wrote an article about this in The Hindu in June 2014 based on the National Election Studies. According to her, the 2014 election dramatically closed the gender gap when it comes to voting. Women voter turnout was 66% in the April-May 14 elections compared with 67% for men. There were more women voters in some states than men and these were not just the traditional womenfriendly states in the North-east but also included Bimaru states like Bihar and Rajasthan. Even then, the gender gap was not in the BJP’s favour and this is probably one reason why PM Modi is doing all this in an attempt to change perception.

Bihar is a classic example of how Nitish Kumar’s women-friendly policies have turned the tide in his party’s favour. Mandatory reservation for women in jobs, free bicycles, sanitary pads and the clincher, total prohibition were some of the reasons that ensured the JDU-RJD victory in 2015 despite the unpopularity of Lalu Prasad’s party among women. About 60% women voted compared with 54% men and a big chunk of women voters opted for Nitish.

Dr Praveen Patil, India’s best psephologist, recounts how his UP exit polls in February-March 2017 found 3% more support among women for the BJP than men. Such a reversal of the gender gap, he opined, would give the saffron party a landslide, which is what happened. PM Modi and Amit Shah are probably as aware of the gender gap than anyone else. But it would take more than just one or two appointments or some programmes to sustain this level of support. Mr Modi and his party would need more focus on development, more Ujwal Yojana like schemes to dominate news headlines. Needless to say, Gorakhpur children deaths is something that the party would not want.