Aftershocks of Jayalalithaa's death bound to be felt in Chennai and Delhi

NEW DELHI: After J. Jayalaithaa's death, the course of power politics in Tamil Nadu is bound to be eventful and dramatic just as three previous landmark episodes in her life — the melodramatic movies she starred to win the Tamil hearts; her action-thriller take-over of AIADMK after MGR’s death; and the eventful manner she, finally, signed off as the reigning queen.

The aftershocks of shake-up in the State politics will also be felt in Delhi. As it happened after MGR’s death, the post-Amma leadership search could also see the Centre, along with prime players of AIADMK – especially Sasikala — holding the strings. The NDA regime would be tactically keen to have a friendly/controlled AIADMK regime in Tamil Nadu as the party’s 11 Rajya Sabha MPs (plus 30 plus in Lok Sabha) could help Modi government smoothen its arithmetic in Upper House.

When MGR died in 1987, AIADMK saw a power tussle. Knowing AIADMK was vertically split, its then ally Congress said it was backing “only the undivided legacy of MGR”. With the split in AIADMK had given 30 odd Congress MLAs the 'tilting role’, the Delhi durbar started positioning; First it posthumously conferred Bharat Ratna on MGR. Then two AICC observers — M O H Farooq and Arunachanalam — reached Delhi to script Congress MLAs’ stand in the leadership tussle between Jayalalithaa and MGR’s widow Janaki Ramachandran. Two top Tamil Nadu Congress leaders too were in splits – with G K Moopananr backing Jayalalithaa and R Venkataraman for Janaki.

AICC observers told party MLAs to vote for Jayalaithaa in floor test, resulting 10 Congress MLAs led by E V K S Elangovan revolting to vote for Janaki, making the floor-test close. As MLAs clashed on the Assembly floor ahead of voting, police entered and resorted to lathi-charge. Then Speaker Pandyna, a Janaki supporter, disqualified some AIADMK MLAs backing Jaya and controversially-declared Janaki as winner of floor-test, resulting in a huge controversy. Centre imposed President’s rule and eventually Jaya won a dominant verdict in the next Assembly poll to become CM with Congress backing.

As Tamil Nadu faces another vacuum, the Modi government must have fully updated itself with the role Central government played after MGR’s death.

There is some ‘quantitative difference’ now; the Delhi-ruling BJP has no MLA in Tamil Nadu Assembly and Congress has just eight MLAs. In the 232-member Tamil Nadu Assembly (with 117 as half-way-mark) , AIADMK has 134 seats, followed by DMK’s 89 and Muslim League’s one. On paper Delhi (BJP), has no MLA to play around like Congress did in 1987. But, party's power at the Centre makes its important.

As Jayalalithaa has no biological heir or a declared political successor and, with AIADMK’s organisation/ideological engine is solely driven by 'Amma bhakti’, her departure could open up an overt, or covert, powers struggle for top post, thus providing a tactical opening for Centre. Though acting Chief Minister Pannerselvam has now become the full-fledged chief of the government, the buzz in Delhi is that since Jayalalithaa’s hospitalisation three months ago her politically-driven friend Sasikala (Pannerselvam is her loyalistvas weel) has taken effective control of AIADMK, and she may want to remain so. After Amma, majority of AIADMK MLAs will follow Sasikala even though some others may resent her consolidation.

Given the rift within AIADMK and the fact DMK too is looking for an fishing in the muddied waters, Centre’s supporting role, many think, will be a strategic requirement for Sasikala faction to ensure a smooth transition. Political circles attribute AIADMK’s recent softening of its stand — in the GST council and the “Uday’ electricity reforms scheme – to Sasikala camp’s way of humoring Centre. AIADMK’s ongoing opposition to demonetisation is seen as a bargaining chip. Given Sasikala herself figures in the disproportional assets case, some argue, she would be prone to pushes from Centre to ensure a ‘convenient’ transition.

At the same time, many feel given Tamil Nadu’s strong 'identity politics', any temptation for the north Indian BJP-led Centre to try and 'replicate Arunachal Pradesh brand of politics' could trigger violent responses.

Even if AIADMK manages a smooth succession to Amma, many feel, its tougher tasks lies ahead. Though Tamil Nadu is known for its OBC politics, so far its major CMs or leaders — be it MGR (a Malayali), Karunandhi (from Isai Vellar caste) and Jayalalithaa (Iyengar Brahmin) all belong to numerically smaller, and balancing castes. Given Sasikala (and Pannirselvam) belong to the numerically dominant Thevar caste (the other two dominant castes are Vaniyar and Dalits), it remains to be seen how the delicate caste politics of the State reacts/adjusts to 'the Thevar domination’. As the faction-ridden AIADMK is struggling to begin a new life without 'a charismatic leader' for the first time, its main task could be to avert a split. The Opposition, including DMK, DMDK, PMK, Congress…etc too are closely watching, and positioning, as the post-Amma AIADMK begins its turbulent journey into the volatile Dravidian politics of Tamil Nadu.