After Bihar jolt, Rajya Sabha elections may decide Congress’s political momentum

NEW DELHI: Usually predictable and ignored, Rajya Sabha elections sometimes attract attention for narrow margins and political manoeuvres but the contests still remain local.

This time the coming batch of Rajya Sabha elections threatens to gain outsized political importance for Congress morale reeling from the collapse of "grand alliance" in Bihar and anxious about the outcome of upcoming state polls.

The Rajya Sabha elections in Gujarat and West Bengal were safe bets for Congress till last week but unexpected developments in the last few days are threatening to upend its calculations.

A sudden exodus of MLAs from Gujarat Congress has put a question mark on the Rajya Sabha berth which was in the party's pocket owing to its strength in the assembly. The contestant for the seat is Ahmed Patel, political secretary to Congress chief Sonia Gandhi.

Congress managers are trying hard to shield the seat by transporting MLAs to Karnataka and outside the reach of BJP's Gujarat managers as they are aware the outcome may go well beyond winning a seat as defeat for Patel, known as a shrewd practitioner of political management, would deepen the impression that Congress has lost its mojo.

In the wake of incessant negative cycles for Congress --ranging from JD(U)'s decision to quit the alliance in Bihar to resignation of Gujarat leader Shankersinh Vaghela from the party, an RS debacle will worsen the mood in Congress ranks nationally.

Already, observers say Vaghela's exit has turned what would have been the best possible election for Congress in Narendra Modi's borough in years to probably the worst in a long time.

In West Bengal, CPM's decision to not tie up with Congress in the Rajya Sabha polls marks a snapping of a partnership which started with the two parties contesting the 2016 state elections together.

It was a radical initiative for the CPM to jointly fight with Congress in Bengal even as it was seeking to unseat the grand old party in Kerala around the same time. In the event CPM won Kerala though it suffered in the alliance with Congress in West Bengal.

Owing to CPM's rupture with Congress, the latter has turned Trinamool Congress for additional votes to win a seat.

This effectively threatens to drown out Congress in the state where the local unit is at loggerheads with the ruling TMC of Mamata Banerjee and BJP is increasing its profile as the opposition.

Congress leaders have reckon with the party moving from being the principal opposition to an adjunct of the ruling party. It may stoke anger among local Congressmen while weakening the opposition.

BJP, on the other hand, gets a free hand to continue its campaign to spread its wings with its anti-TMC line.

Sealing the sole Rajya Sabha victory in Bengal may inflict a heavy cost on Congress.