AAP's recent setbacks & the bitter Delhi election

Room number 118B on the third floor of Samvidhan Sadan signifies a small victory. A decade after the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made its debut in Lok Sabha in 2014, the fledgling party was finally assigned a room in the Old Parliament building during the recently-concluded winter session. A beaming AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh declared triumphantly, "The party finally fulfills the criteria of having eight MPs for being assigned an office."

With 13 MPs - three Lok Sabha and 10 Rajya Sabha - AAP's highest-ever strength in Parliament, the party seems upbeat. However, the beginning of 2025 is likely to be challenging as the party faces a do-or-die battle in Delhi assembly elections. ET takes a look at the political road ahead for AAP as it fights to retain its stronghold of Delhi, justifies its brand of freebies politics and battles to remain politically relevant till 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

THE YEAR THAT WAS

The year 2024 has been a tumultuous one for AAP. Over the last two years, the party has seen the incarceration of its top leaders - Satyendra Jain (former health minister who was arrested in May 2022 and remained in prison till October this year) and Manish Sisodia (former deputy CM who was arrested in February 2023 and released in August this year). But the final test came when AAP convenor and former Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal was arrested on March 21, just five days after the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the poll schedule for the Lok Sabha polls. Delhi was scheduled to vote just two months later but with its top leadership behind bars, AAP faced an unprecedented crisis. Apart from the question of propriety whether Kejriwal should remain the chief minister, there was the bigger question of governance coming into the hands of relatively-inexperienced team of ministers. This was the time when AAP was looking to finalise seat sharing arrangement with the INDIA bloc ally Congress for Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Goa and Gujarat.

ELECTORAL FINE PRINT
In absolute terms, the strength of AAP in Parliament seems encouraging. But the electoral fine print of 2024 is far from that. The recent electoral outings of AAP have been dismal. In the Lok Sabha elections, AAP (in alliance with Congress) could not win a single seat in Delhi - a state held by the party since 2015. Even in Punjab parliamentary elections, the party could not capitalise on its decisive victory in 2022 assembly elections. It improved its Punjab tally from 2 seats in 17th Lok Sabha to a mere 3 this year.

In an earlier interview with ET, AAP national general secretary (organization) Sandeep Pathak had said the results from Punjab were surprising. In the state, Congress polled 26.3% votes but won 7 seats while AAP polled 26.02% votes and got only 3 seats. Overall, AAP polled 1.11% votes in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, up from 0.3% in 2019 parliamentary elections.

AAP also tried to gain a foothold in Odisha contesting 106 of 147 assembly segments, in elections held along with parliamentary polls. The results were underwhelming with 58 candidates not even garnering 1,000 votes. But the party drew solace from the fact that it had not roped in its top leadership here. The bigger defeat for AAP was in Haryana assembly elections where the party failed to make any impact despite a high-pitch campaign by Kejriwal. AAP was hoping for a pre-poll alliance with Congress but due to stiff opposition of Congress veteran and former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, it did not fructify. AAP still fielded candidates in 88 of the 90 assembly segments. However, it lost deposits on 87 of the 88 seats and polled 1.8% of votes.

The only AAP candidate who did reasonably well was Adarsh Pal Singh Gurjar from Jagadhari who secured 43,813 votes. Even AAP's senior vice president Anurag Dhanda, who contested from Kalayat assembly segment, finished fifth. The only silver lining in this round of elections was the surprise victory of Mehraj Malik from Doda assembly seat in Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections.

2025: THE CRUCIAL YEAR
The year will begin with the biggest political test for AAP - Delhi Assembly elections. The party has ruled the capital city for 10 years and faces an obvious anti-incumbency. AAP is aware of this disadvantage as it has dropped almost a third of its MLAs. But when it comes to performance, there are enough red marks on its administrative report card.

In its 2020 election manifesto, AAP had promised 10 guarantees. On December 24, less than two months to go for elections, it has just started on its second guarantee of "24-hour pure piped for every household" in Rajinder Nagar. The three guarantees of "Delhi will be made garbage and debris free", "reduce pollution to a third of the current levels" and "slum dwellers of Delhi to be provided pucca houses for a dignified living" remain unimplemented.

In the run-up to the elections, Kejriwal has fished out the known trump cards - pension scheme for women and outreach to auto drivers. These two voter constituencies have been driving Kejriwal past the post in every single election. But there is a growing discontentment against Kejriwal's governance, especially with a policy paralysis gripping the city.

The voter is visibly tired with the administrative lethargy that has crept in and may be unwilling to accept the "Centre is not allowing us to work" justification any more. The city is plagued with potholed roads, growing piles of garbage, stray cattle menace and increasing levels of pollution and traffic. With its victory in Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections in 2022, AAP cannot even shirk away from the responsibility of poor civic amenities. It will need to deliver on its promises.

Though it had won 62 of the 70 assembly constituencies in 2020 polls, AAP stares at uncertainty this time. The party had got political legitimacy with its decisive victory in Delhi. Now, its political survival depends on this very litmus test in early 2025.